BP on Tigers and Royals

Detroit Tigers
Comings and Goings: Detroit's free agent news: Coming:
Player VORP Contract
Troy Percival 15.7 2 years/$12 MM
Going:
Player VORP New Team
Esteban Yan 17.7 ANA, 2 years/$2.25 MM
Al Levine 12.3 still free agent
Eric Munson 3.8 non-tendered
Moving in the Wrong Direction: Troy Percival is now the Tigers' closer, having signed for two years/$12 MM. Here are some worrisome numbers:
Year K/9I HR/9 BB/9
2000 8.82 .9 4.8
2001 11.08 .5 2.5
2002 10.86 .8 3.8
2003 8.76 1.0 4.2
2004 5.98 1.1 3.2
Moving from a somewhat neutral park in Anaheim to a pitchers' park in Detroit will help hide his decline, but he's not worth anything near six million bucks. With the 2004 Tigers bullpen both anonymous and mediocre, and with Ugueth Urbina's mother's kidnapping situation still unresolved, one can see how Detroit would want at least a modicum of stability in their pen for next season. Signing an overvalued power pitcher who is losing his power precipitously is not the best way to go about adding that stability, however. Paying Percival far more than he's worth while simultaneously letting Esteban Yan sign for far less elsewhere is curious. Shiny "Proven Closer" label aside, Percival's basically a warm body at this point; there's not as much of a difference between him and Yan as you might think. Ten million dollars over two years is a lot to gamble to find out, though.
Who's on Third? Well, not Eric Munson, who was non-tendered on December 21. We could charitably call Munson's 2004 "challenging" but, in all seriousness, he's pretty clearly not the player that the Tigers thought he'd become. His departure leaves a vacancy at third base, a vacancy that will require some creativity to fill as no internal solution seems likely.
Brandon Inge re-signed, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.35 MM. Inge had himself a pretty useful season in 2004, and played the majority of his innings at third base. No one's arguing that he should start there in place of Munson, though; 2004 was Inge's age-27 season and likely his career year. His OBP was .340; his highest before this was .266. His .453 SLG was largely a product of a power spike that saw him hit 13 home runs and 7 triples. It's interesting that triples affect a player's SLG column, yet are more an indicator of speed than power. Inge has decent speed, but the fact that five of his triples were hit in Comerica just screams "fluke." While both his ABs and hits have gone up each of his four seasons, his doubles output has stayed largely the same, meaning that he's adding lots of singles each year.
This isn't a bad thing. While the triples were largely a fluke, perhaps the home run power is for real. Inge plays a credible third base, and can sit in at catcher and center field; finding a single player to play those three very different positions has some value. If he chips in anything close to a .340 OBP, as he did in 2004, then all the better. As a utility player, Inge is exactly what you'd want: he has the ability to play a few different positions, and the ability to spot start when a regular becomes injured or ineffective (*cough* center field *cough*). Heading into 2005, we're at least wondering whether or not Inge will hit. We know Joe McEwing won't.
He's Got Legs and He Knows How To Use Them: The Tigers also re-upped Alex Sanchez for 2005 for the same $1.35 MM that they gave Inge. While much has been made of Sanchez's basestealing deficiencies, 2004 was out of line with his career numbers:
Year SB CS SB%
2001 6 2 .75
2002 37 14 .73
2003 (Mil) 8 6 .57
2003 (Det) 44 18 .71
2004 19 13 .59
This doesn't excuse the signing, though. Alex Sanchez is still Alex Sanchez, and he's still on the wrong side of the 75% break-even rate for stolen bases. He missed some action in 2004 with various leg problems (hamstring, thigh), and if those recur, what little value he had could be entirely gone; if his speed returns and he accumulates some steals at about a 71% rate, that'll be a lot of counting stats that might increase his value come July 31 when a playoff team tries to get a Dave Roberts at a bargain price.
Much of Sanchez's batting average is tied up in infield hits, and if he loses that, he's toast. It's absurd to pay over a million bucks for a center fielder who won't hit the ball out of the infield, especially when the Tigers already had such a player earning the league minimum: Exavier Logan, otherwise known as Nook. I mean, come on: Exavier Prente Logan? That's a great name. That has to count for something, right? Right?
Kansas City Royals
Comings and Goings: Kansas City's free agent list: Coming:
Player VORP Contract
Kevin Appier -5.2 minor league deal
Luis Ugueto DNP minor league deal
Jose Lima 28.0 1 year/$2.5 MM
Going:
Player VORP New Team
Joe Randa 20.1 CIN, 1 year/$2.25 MM
Kelly Stinett 5.7 ARI, minor league deal
Dennis Reyes 11.0 SDP, 1 year/$550K
Miguel Asencio DNP non-tendered
Juan Gonzalez 4.4 still free agent
Desi Relaford -10.8 COL?
I'm Crazy For You But Not That Crazy: What's this? Zach Greinke, not necessarily assured of starting on Opening Day? And a few inane quotations about how there are plenty of good candidates available within the current rotation? Who exactly are these "good candidates," and how, precisely, are they better than Greinke? Of course, fretting over who gets the ball Opening Day is not really a good way to spend one's time. But this is ultimately a cheap and easy way into a look at the Royals rotation. Here's what they did in 2004 (minimum: 10 starts):
Player GS VORP
Darrell May 31 -1.2
Brian Anderson 26 -8.0
Jimmy Gobble 24 8.5
Zack Greinke 24 36.4
Mike Wood 17 2.2
Dennis Reyes 12 11.0
Greinke was clearly the superior pitcher in Kansas City last year, and with no competition. May has been traded to San Diego, ostensibly replaced in the rotation by Jose Lima, recently inked to a one year, $2.5 MM deal. Virtually guaranteed a spot in Kansas City's rotation, Lima returns to K.C. after reclaiming his career in Los Angeles. While we'll have plenty of fond memories of his time in L.A. (including, but not limited to, this playoff game, he's not likely to improve on his recent performance. He still doesn't strike anyone out (he's been under six whiffs per nine since his disastrous 2001 with Houston), and the impeccable control he had in 2004 reversed a recent (though small) trend of relative wildness. When a team's Web site champion's a recent signee's veteran leadership before his position is even mentioned, be afraid. Be very, very afraid.
In other Royals rotation news, Miguel Asencio turned down the Royals' offer of arbitration, but there's a chance they will re-sign him. Given the almost inexplicable free-agent market for mediocre pitching this offseason, he was probably right to hold out for more money. Coming off Tommy John surgery, though, and the fact that he's Miguel Asencio, he's unlikely to have many serious suitors.
Nobody {Messes} With DeJesus: With Carlos Beltran gone (and he's not coming back), the center-field job was handed to prospect David DeJesus:
Before the All-Star Break: .164/.253/.179 in 67 ABsAfter the All-Star Break: .314/.385/.453 in 296 ABsTotal for season: .287/.360/.402 in 363 ABs
While Beltran's offense will be missed, it's not like they replaced him with a slouch. DeJesus' minor league track record suggests good OBP, good BA, above-average defense, and low home run totals. That'll play.
One thing DeJesus definitely does not share with Beltran is basestealing acumen: eight successful steals in 19 tries is not so good (See: Sanchez, Alex above). His minor league numbers aren't much better, either: 19 successes against 14 failures. But when SB% is your largest concern with a prospect, you're in pretty good shape.
I Don't Know's on Third: Like the Tigers, Kansas City has a third base hole to fill, with Joe Randa having moved on to the Reds. Desi Relaford was the only other player to see significant time at the hot corner in 2004, and he's likely a Rockie for 2005.
The Royals appear to have two options. The first is Mark Teahen, whose contract was just purchased from Omaha. Is he ready? In three minor league seasons, he's a .287/.368/.411 hitter, with 18 home runs in 1256 career ABs; most of this minor-league line was compiled in pitcher's parks, so we can throw him a bone, albeit a small one. His power numbers are a bit low, though he's demonstrated impressive control of the strike zone at all levels. Allard Baird took some heat for publicly saying he wanted a third baseman and catcher in return for Beltran last year, as some people thought it limited his options; rather than get the best possible players available regardless of their position, he settled for the best "third baseman and catcher" set. Teahen might not be cut from the Scott Rolen mold of third basemen, but Bill Mueller has value.
It can only be assumed that if Teahen's not ready, the job will go to option number two: Chris Truby, signed to a one-year deal in November. Truby's career line is .231/.269/.388. Advantage: Teahen.
The Sisco Kid: Dayn Perry ran down the list of Rule 5 eligibles this year and determined that Andy Sisco could be the real prize. The Royals snagged him with the second pick overall, which could work out very well for both parties; though he's arguably better suited for Omaha, it isn't like Sisco will have to be buried as the 13th man on the staff, and his presence alone might dispel any crazy notions that Jaime Cerda could/should ever be used as a LOOGY. Of course, Rule 5ers tend to hit the DL in May or June with a surprise case of "Mystery Arm," the only known cure of which is roster expansion.