We are a fantasy baseball league whose draft is scheduled for April 14. Ten men enter (or nine or eight), and one man leaves.

Friday, September 02, 2005



For the first time in his years in office, Bush seems to have run into something that has actually left him visibly rattled, in stark contrast to 9/11, which he quickly grabbed and ran with in a burst of heroic posturing. The problem, I think, is that England doesn't have hurricanes. Or much else in the way of big-ticket natural catastrophes such as earthquakes or tidal waves or swarms of tornados. Which means that Winston Churchill never had to respond to such.

And Bush's role model for national leadership was Churchill, whose biographies he read avidly while prepping for the presidency, and to whom he aspires to be likened by historians. W entered office dreaming of being to the US what Winston was to Britain--a great wartime leader--and as events would have it, the wartime part of that equation proved extremely easy to engineer and realize. Just the other day, Bush explicitly equated our Iraq adventure with World War II, and who cannot appreciate the many similarities between the Wehrmacht and the Sunni roadside bombers.

But Churchill's life and career offered nothing remotely like a template for dealing with a monumental natural disaster. A major American city has deteriorated into a raw, anarchic Baghdad-by-the-Bayou. Alas, this is not a situation where W can simply pick up the phone and sic the greatest military establishment in world history on the problem. This kind of problem requires ingenious and rapid solutions, not simple overwhelming force. Very simply, Bush doesn't know what the hell to do, and, as he has filled his government not with technocrats or managers but with ideologues, he has no one able to tell him.


If you go to the official FEMA site, it lists a number of recommended charities to which to send your donations, along with links thereto. First on the list is the Red Cross. Second on the list is Operation Blessing, a fundamentalist organization of alleged charitable purpose run by Pat "Kill Chavez, For Christ's Sake" Robertson. Pat, who will surely characterize the inundation of Nawleans (whose devastated center somebody in the media will equally surely christen "Pond Zero") as divine retribution for the city's tolerance of vice, celebratory excess, occasional nudity, hedonism and homosexuality, has never encountered a human tragedy that he was not ready, willing, and able to exploit for economic gain.

It's just nice to know that amid all the madness and chaos, FEMA hasn't forgotten that its first duty, as a government agency, is to ensure that, whatever the disaster, the administration's brownshirt baptist base gets a good healthy taste of the action.


Instead of the Saints playing their home games at Houston or Dallas or Atlanta or some combination thereof, they could play each of their home games at a different NFL stadium around the country as the home-away-from-home team, or, at least for this season of their travail, as America's Team, in the sense that New Orleans has become America's city. Each "home" game could also be a fundraising event at that facility and in the host city for the survivors and the charities in New Orleans.

Maybe this is just a saccharine concept, but if anyone out there thinks it has merit and cares to pass it on, possibly to someone who might take it further, be my guest.

Thursday, May 05, 2005


You'd think that the first American writer to have his own bobble-head doll included in the official Baseball Hall of Fame bobble-head doll collection at Cooperstown would have been someone on the order of Roger Kahn, or Roger Angel, or even Ernest Lawrence Thayer ("Casey at the Bat"), but no. That honor went, on Wednesday, to Jack Kerouac. The Kerouac bobble-head was commissioned by the minor league Lowell (Mass.) Spinners in 2001 as part of a promotional event. Other than the fact that Jack was a Lowell native, I don't know that he had any connection with the team or, for that matter, the sport. The Spinners cranked out 1,500 of them before destroying the mold, and given the sheer uniqueness, rarity and oddness of the concept, I'm guessing that each one is now probably worth its weight in Reggie Jackson rookie cards. The Cooperstown folks offered some vague blurbish "treasured American literary figure" blather by way of explanation for Kerouac's totemic induction, but I'm still unclear on why they bestowed this honor on him. One could kill a lot of time at this point making insipid wordplays -- On The Road Trip, Dharma / Brooklyn Bums, and so forth, but one suspects that he's already exhausted the average person's interest in this item.

Saturday, April 09, 2005


"SYDNEY, Australia (AP) 4/8/05 -- Qantas Airways Ltd. on Friday suspended a baggage handler who was caught on video opening a passenger's bag which contained a camel costume, donning the head and wandering around the airport tarmac.

"The costume's owner said he was waiting inside the terminal at Sydney Airport earlier this week when he glanced outside and saw the baggage handler wearing his camel head. He said he was shocked and reported the incident to the airline.

"Qantas Chief Executive Geoff Dixon said a security camera had recorded the baggage handler opening the bag and trying on the camel head. He said the baggage handler had been suspended and could be fired pending further investigation."

Okay, let's review: You're working as a baggage handler, one of the definitive dead-end, toilet-scrubber, drive-you-absolutely-insane-performing-mindless-drudgery occupations, and you're probably considering suicide for the 900th time, and as usual at such times, you open a few bags for a bit of brief and blessed diversion, and what do you find? A camel costume! Complete with camel head! This can only be a gift from God Almighty. I don't think "miracle" is too overwrought a word. Thirteen years working the Sidney International offload conveyer line, and you've never even heard of anyone else coming across a camel head. What do you do? An imbecilic question. You PUT THE CAMEL HEAD ON AND YOU CAVORT AROUND THE TERMINAL. Why? Because you'll never have this chance again. Because there can be no other reason for you having stumbled across this camel head. It is God's message to baggage handlers the world around that, even in their living hell, there can be deliverance and divinely inspired solace. And anyway, if it's good enough for the Bohemian Club, it's good enough for you.

The International Brotherhood of Baggage Handlers should make it a stipulation in their next union contract that, for one minute each month, members around the world shall be allowed to pause and refresh their spirits by doing "the camel walk." And that Aussie worker's locker should be made a shrine.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

Is Left Field a Problem? Not If We All Just Try to Get Along.

You know how Jeffrey loves to mess with you like he's playing 3D chess with Mr. Spock on the original Star Trek. Well, when he told me RF was deep with talent this year I figured: pawn to the Rings of Saturn. But no. He's right. Whether or not to take Swisher -- he of the twofer in Balt. -- is going to be a bit of a dilemma since the options are many. But LF is a different kettle of hand-eye coordination. Who are some of these bums? The good news is that the DHs -- Ibanez at Seattle and Ford in Minnesota -- are both left fielders if you go by at least some of the depth charts I have been consulting. And Casey Blake in Cleveland was inked in as the LFer there until Gonzalez pulled his hamstring. Arguably he is a LFer as well. I propose this is how we look at it. Any objections?

Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Thinking about the draft, particularly 1b, 2b and Nick Swisher

Today I bought a Baseball Weekly that had complete spring training stats and had a nice long sit down at a local coffee shop making some notes. The myth is that I prepare and prepare but, nah, it's just me in the sun with a pencil stub and a reporter's notebook. Today I thought about 1b where I made a list 18 deep, counting most of the DHs as first basemen. I'll even tell you who my number 17 and 18 1bers were. Calvin Pickering and Josh Phelps. If you figure 80/80/25 is what you want from that position, these guys could do it. Probably won't but could. I'll have my eye on them. It shows how deep the position is.

But when it comes to 2b, I won't tell you my 8th, 9th or 10th picks are since you might *use that knowledge against me.* Suffice it to say that I don't want to have to buy one of the tail-end guys at that position. That's why I say Chone Figgins is playing 2nd now. Let's leave him there even though Adam Kennedy will turn him into a super utility player when Kennedy gets back. If he gets back.

Now for Swisher: This, I thought, is one vastly overrated rookie, and I was hopeful someone would waste a quarter on him in right hahahahaha. Tonight he hits two home runs. Maybe he is worth a quarter.

Checking positions, etc., the first question I have is in regard to Shea Hillenbrand. He's dhing in Toronto, and the usa today depth chart has him at both 1b and 3b. Shall we put him at 3b where the pool is shallower?

Come on, brave lads. Join the conversation.

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Yanks Health Report

C Jorge Posada: Posada has escaped serious injury throughout his career. Some will call it luck, but if there's one quality I want in a catcher, it's not an electric arm--it's pain tolerance.
1B Tino Martinez: Martinez was brought in to take the field in the stead of Jason Giambi. Giambi has had well-documented health problems, but Martinez has plenty of his own. This move is more about the clubhouse than first base and it might not work in either place.
2B Tony Womack: Womack came back from Tommy John surgery in just five months, putting together a healthy career year. His legs are his key asset.
SS Derek Jeter
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Hideki Matsui
CF Bernie Williams: Williams is just a shell of the player who has an arguable case for the Hall of Fame. Never a strong thrower, arthritis has sapped his ability to throw effectively. Matsui would be a better option than Williams or Doug Glanville.
RF Gary Sheffield: His left shoulder is still a bit of a problem. Coming off surgery, he's not back to 100%, so some of the power numbers might be off in the first couple of months.
DH Jason Giambi: No one knows if he can come back. When we talk about the gains of steroid users, why don't we point to Giambi or to Jose Canseco's long history of injury just as much?
SP Randy Johnson: He's still pitching on knees without cartilage, after all. It's an unknown, but you have to like what he did in 2004 and his chances to do it again.
SP Mike Mussina: Once elbow problems start in a pitcher, they seldom just vanish. His little "drinking bird" maneuver from the stretch bothers me to no end.
SP Carl Pavano
SP Kevin Brown: Anger management is as much an issue as injury management with Brown. Older pitchers tend to fall into pattern. Injured pitchers stay injured, while healthy pitchers stay healthy. You know which one Brown is.
SP Jaret Wright: Wright's had as many surgeries as Joan Rivers has. His one good post-surgical season got him a big contract and gave the Yankees the riskiest pitcher in the majors.
CL Mariano Rivera: Rivera had his annual elbow problem early this season, missing a week of spring training. He'll probably have a couple more instances of this, with another season of domination when healthy. His cut fastball may be the best in history.
People buy insurance to lay off some of the risk. If you wreck your car, you don't want to have to buy a whole new car. If your house burns down, you don't want to have to pay to rebuild it. That's the idea of insurance--risk management based on financial need.
For a team like the Yankees, there is no need, and therefore no risk. If they lose a player, they don't seem to mind the financial loss, heading back to the checkbook. Unlike teams that don't spend money--and yes, I realize that no team has built up their financial resources like the Yankees have--a bad contract or a risk that bites them doesn't kill them financially. This tendency toward self-insurance--acceptance of risk--is what gives the Yankees yet another advantage.
The Yankees can safely ignore the age or injury history of players in search of upside. Jaret Wright is a risky pitcher, one that is going to be expensive enough that that risk would keep most other teams away, but not the Yankees. If he collapses, they'll find another and if not, the media will point to their financial advantages rather than their risk-management profile.
More teams could do this. Short contracts with a higher degree of accepted risk could work for every team to some degree. It would just take a better, more educated guess on the risk than most front offices can put together now.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

BP on Twins

Minnesota Twins
Signed, Sealed Santana: The Twins averted arbitration with Johan Santana, signing their ace southpaw to a four-year, $39.75 million deal, the richest in team history. Of course, that designation isn't saying much, as this is a franchise that under Clark and Calvin Griffith threw nickels around as if they were manhole covers. They're currently in the hands of the miserly Montgomery Burns Carl Pohlad, who's 89 years old and worth $2.2 billion, according to Forbes, making him the 247th richest man in the world. Pohlad didn't get rich paying exorbitant salaries to those old Federal League bandits and he's not about to start now, so that rapscallion Santana could forget about his nice, round $40 million dollar deal. Smithers, unleash the hounds...
Santana, who turns 26 in March, will reportedly earn $5.5 million this season, $9 million in 2006, $12 million in 2007 and $13.25 million in 2008. All told, it's not a bad deal compared to the other four-year pacts inked with various pitchers this winter:
Career ---2004--- ---2005---
Lowe 32 36 3.88 5.42 -11.5 4.01 17.6
Martinez 33 53 2.71 3.90 51.2 2.93 53.3
Ortiz 30 33 4.00 4.13 33.1 5.02 12.1
Pavano 29 ~40 4.21 3.00 62.4 4.64 21.3
Santana 26 ~40 3.47 2.57 88.8 3.11 63.6
Those last two columns are via our 2005 PECOTA projections. Santana is the third most-expensive of the bunch over the life of his four-year deal (Carl Pavano edges him by a mere by $200,000; the new Yankee hurler's contract is actually for $39,950,000, apparently just to annoy people who make neat little fixed-width charts for the Web), but he's also the youngest by a good three years, and projects to have the highest VORP of the bunch in 2005 (Pedro Martinez can thank pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium for the rosiest ERA projection).
The reason the Santana deal looks so good for the Twins is that unlike the other four pitchers, he was still two years away from free agency. But given that the pitcher was seeking $6.8 million in arbitration this year (with the Twins offering $5 million), this is quite a bargain for the Twins on the front end. More importantly, the franchise's most valuable commodity is a happy camper, safely tucked away until the next presidential election.
Will Whoever Stole Terry Ryan's Pants Please Return Them? As with the Santana case, the Twins avoided going to arbitration with Carlos Silva by settling beforehand. This solid mid-rotation workhorse, who put up a 4.21 ERA in 203 innings, good for a 40.5 VORP, was seeking $2.225 million, while the Twins were offering $1.65 million. The two sides agreed to a two-year, $5.05 million deal which includes a club option in the third year that can escalate from $4 million up to $5.75 million based on the number of innings Silva pitches. The deal also has some minor incentive clauses triggered by those innings. In other words, the more of a workhorse he is over the next two years, the bigger his payday. Fair enough.
But the Twins were unable to avoid arbitration with a third starter, Kyle Lohse, and the results of the case illustrate why teams are so wary of the process. Lohse went 9-13 with a whopping 5.34 ERA in 194 innings pitched, which translated into a measly VORP of 6.3. Among pitchers who threw 162 innings or more (qualifying for the ERA title, as if...), only six were worse. In other words, Lohse stunk on ice like few pitchers in the game last year.
Lohse made $395,000 last year and was seeking a $2.4 million salary for 2005, while the Twins were offering $2.15 million. So with a quarter million dollars standing between them and Lohse's lousy campaign on the books for last year, you'd figure the Twins would be able to make an easy case and save themselves a bit of money to buy Joe Mauer that pony that he's been pining for ever since the subject was broached last month.
They lost the case.
It's tempting to wonder whether they showed up with the Silva dossier and lost on a technicality, or whether some insurance salesman wandered into the wrong hotel conference room while GM Terry Ryan was stuck in traffic and simply decided to wing it. "Hell, I like baseball, I can do this," thinks the insurance salesman, straightening his bowtie as he imagines those poor saps still stuck in that boring seminar on proper cold-calling techniques that he ditched "to go get some [cough, cough] cough drops." After Lohse's agent spends five minutes arguing that his client and Johan Santana have the same number of chromosomes and thus share similar pitching abilities, the Twins are $250,000 lighter and Carl Pohlad is unleashing the hounds on a school full of unsuspecting kindergartners waving Homer Hankies. Not pretty.
And also not bloody likely, since the arbitration process is rather circumscribed. If you've ever wanted to know what goes on in that room when team and player square off, what criteria are admissible and what aren't Tom Gorman's piece on arbitration is a must-read.
San Francisco Giants
Brian's Song: Earler this month, the Giants extended the contract of GM Brian Sabean through 2006. Since Sabean took the helm in 1997, the team has won three NL West division titles, a wild card and a pennant. They trail only the Yankees and the Braves in victories over that time:
Tm Tot W AVG
NYY 795 99.4
ATL 791 98.9
SFG 738 92.3
BOS 717 89.6
HOU 711 88.9
OAK 709 88.6
STL 706 88.3
SEA 701 87.6
LAN 690 86.3
CLE 675 84.4
Recall that before Sabean joined the Giants as their assistant GM back in December 1992, he was the Yankees' Vice President of Scouting and Player Development. As Andrew Baharlias wrote nearly a year ago, Sabean stands as one of the few Yankee Baseball Operations executives of any significance to elude the Defensive Employee Retention Program, George Steinbrenner's attempt to corner the market on baseball brains.
Sabean has taken a rather unorthodox tack during his tenure with the Giants, particularly recently. The past two winters have seen him jump the gun to sign free agents before the December 7 arbritration offer date, thereby causing the team to surrender its first-round pick in the June amateur draft for the likes of Michael Tucker and Omar Vizquel. Furthermore, the Giants appear to have quite a thing for such bluehaired free-agents as Vizquel (38 this coming season), Moises Alou (38) and Mike Matheny (34, which in catcher-years is like great-grandma old), and he was quick to pick up the team's options on Marquis Grissom (38) and J.T. Snow (37).
Meanwhile, the team appears to have more or less given up producing major league-ready hitters from within. Last year the Giants gave Pedro Feliz more than 500 plate appearances, scary enough given his .305 OBP. Remarkably, that's the first time since 1997 (Bill Mueller) that they made a regular out of an entirely homegrown player, one they had either drafted or signed as an amateur free agent. Even if we lower the bar to 300 plate appearances and work backwards chronologically, it takes nearly two full decades to field a theoretical "starting eight" of homegrown players:
Pos Player Year
C Kirt Manwaring 1992
1B Pedro Feliz 2004
2B Robby Thompson 1986
SS Royce Clayton 1992
3B Bill Mueller 1997
LF Mike Aldrete 1988
CF Marvin Benard 1996
RF Armando Rios 2001
A few caveats: left field has been occupied for the past decade by a guy who's only one of the best hitters ever, and the likelihood of anybody coming up with a rookie to beat him out is somewhere between zero and Neifi's VORP. Mike Aldrete got more than 300 PA while spending time at all three outfield positions in '87 and became the regular left fielder in '88. Feliz was a rare multiposition regular last season, playing only 70 games at first, another 37 at third, and 20 at shortstop. All told, only three of these players became regulars during Sabean's first eight years as GM, and one, Armando Rios, was shipped out to Pittsburgh mere weeks after he'd crossed that threshold.
The story with regards to pitchers is a bit happier. Starters Jerome Williams, Noah Lowry, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Jensen, Russ Ortiz and Joe Nathan are all homegrown products who broke in on Sabean's watch. While none of them is Jason Schmidt (shhhh, don't tell the Diamondbacks) and the last four on that list have moved on, Lowry (3.82 ERA and 17.9 VORP in 92 innings last year) and Williams (4.24 ERA and 13.8 VORP in 129.1 IP) figure to slot in this year's rotation directly behind Schmidt. Foppert (5.03 ERA and 1.2 VORP in 111 innings in 2003), who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, will bid for a spot as well, with a bullpen role more likely. Meanwhile, other Giants draftees who got cups of coffee last year may see time in the bullpen as well: David Aardsma (the team's first pick in 2003 and the man who supplanted Hank Aaron as the all-time alphabetical frontrunner), Brad Hennessey (their 2001 first pick) and Kevin Correia.
Robbbbed: Former Giants closer Robb Nen announced his retirement last week. Nen had missed the past two seasons with a smorgasbord of shoulder woes that included tears to both his labrum and his rotator cuff, three surgeries, several false starts and plenty of Under the Knife mentions. According to the San Jose Mercury News, in 2002 Nen decided to pitch through a partial rotator cuff tear that the Giant training staff informed him was career-threatening, and he's not looking back in anger: "I wouldn't have changed it. If we were 20 games out, that would have changed it, but not when you're trying to get to the playoffs and get to the World Series."
Nen ranks 13th on the all-time saves list and put up some triple-digit radar readings and sub-2.00 ERAs over the course of his career. Nen's final major league appearance was a blown save that cost the Giants their first World Championship since 1954, but he got a raw deal on that one. Summoned to protect a one-run lead in the eighth inning of Game Six, he inherited a mess from Tim Worrell: nobody out, with pinch-runner Chone Figgins on third base and Garret Anderson on second thanks to a Barry Bonds bobble. That's an expectation of 1.9722 runs. He promptly surrendered a two-run double to Troy Glaus, the first hitter he faced, allowing the (Wherever They Were Claiming to Be From in 2002) Angels to take the lead and subsequently tie the series, forcing Game Seven. They trailed that one from the third inning onward, so Nen never got a shot at redemption. Tough break.
--Jay Jaffe

Friday, February 11, 2005

BP on Rays and Jays

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Lamar Giveth, and Lamar Taketh Away: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...wait, this is the Devil Rays, not the Sharks.
After teasing us with a glint of promise and bringing in Josh Phelps and Brandon Larson, two players with significant upside--the Devil Rays seemed determined to spite us for our kind words. Rather than signing Joe Randa, a mediocrity who would have played well enough at third base to ensure B.J. Upton an opportunity at shortstop, they signed the badder Alex Gonzalez.
Gonzalez's value has been largely based on his defense the last few years--he's basically your low batting average shortstop who doesn't draw a walk yet can hit with a little pop. Now it looks like the pop is fizzling.
29 2002 CHI-N 142 513 127 27 5 18 46 136 5 3 .248 .312 .425 22.6
30 2003 CHI-N 152 536 122 37 0 20 47 123 3 3 .228 .295 .409 13.9
31 2004 CHI-N 37 129 28 10 0 3 4 26 1 1 .217 .241 .364 -2.9
31 2004 MON-N 35 133 32 7 0 4 8 32 1 1 .241 .289 .383 1.5
31 2004 SD-N 11 23 4 1 1 0 2 6 0 0 .174 .240 .304 -1.0
That's an anti-Bondsian line of .223/.263/.368 during the 2004 campaign. Gonzalez never really developed since breaking in with the Blue Jays in 1994, and now he looks like he's on the slippery slope downwards. To put it another way, last year Gonzalez hit roughly the way a typical hitter did against Cy Young winner Roger Clemens. He's gone from a VORP of 22.6 to 13.9 to -2.4 the last three seasons; that's downright scary. So how is he going to add value at third base?
To add insult to injury, Will Carroll has Gonzalez flagged with a red light in his Team Health Report on the Devil Rays.
Basically, the Devil Rays have three reasonable options at shortstop. Gonzalez is clearly the worst of the three, and age may be hitting him hard. He could be insurance for Julio Lugo if B.J. Upton starts the year at Triple-A Durham, but is it really that important if you're the Devil Rays?
Their best option is to see if Upton is ready in spring training; his bat is already there, but if necessary they can farm him out to work on his fielding. Either way, at that point Lugo has to play. When Upton settles into the shortstop job, Lugo becomes a valuable player in trade. Gonzalez need not fit in the equation.
One Way to Avoid Wood-Chipping Young Arms: Lou Piniella can have a positive effect on hitters, especially those with power potential who haven't hit their peak. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for young pitchers. So what's one way to solve the problem? Sign "proven veterans."
In the past month, Hideo Nomo and Denny Neagle have signed with the Devil Rays, and Casey Fossum has been acquired in trade. Normally, that would be underwhelming, but when the rest of the rotation is Scott Kazmir, Mark Hendrickson, Dewon Brazelton, Doug Waechter and Rob Bell, you need help. Let's look at what PECOTA expects in 2005:
Fossum 25 125.1 130 17 48 106 4.72 13.6
Neagle 16 80.2 85 12 27 51 4.72 11.7
Nomo 22 103.2 105 17 48 72 4.86 12.7
Kazmir 19 98.0 85 13 53 85 4.51 15.5
Hendrickson 26 142.2 170 20 40 74 5.22 10.7
Brazelton 21 114.1 127 17 49 72 5.48 7.1
Waechter 21 74.1 78 14 37 46 5.84 2.6
Bell 20 98.0 108 14 34 56 5.01 9.8
Including Fossum and the incumbent five, that projects to a total VORP of 59.3. That's not a pretty pitching staff, and it's one badly in need of an ace. Kazmir is the best chance for that, but the most important thing for him at this point is surviving the injury nexus. His making it through 2005 healthy is more important than his mowing down the league. Putting things in perspective, in 1997, the Braves' rotation averaged better than the combined VORP projection for the 2005 Devil Rays. Each Braves starter was more effective individually than what we anticipate from the entire Devil Rays' staff.
Perhaps there is good reason to take flyers on Nomo and Neagle, after all--even if they're only short-term stopgaps.
Toronto Blue Jays
Reshaping the Infield: 2004 was not kind to the Blue Jays in general. One specific problem they had was an infield that was ineffective, whether it was due to injury, poor play or some combination thereof. Last year's totals, with Carlos Delgado, Orlando Hudson, Chris Gomez, Chris Woodward and Eric Hinske:
Delgado 1B 32 458 123 26 0 32 69 115 0 1 .269 .372 .535 41.4
Hudson 2B 26 489 132 32 7 12 51 98 7 3 .270 .341 .438 27.4
Gomez SS 33 341 96 11 1 3 28 41 3 2 .282 .337 .346 7.2
Woodward SS 28 213 50 13 4 1 14 46 1 2 .235 .283 .347 -2.6
Hinske 3B 26 570 140 23 3 15 54 109 12 8 .246 .313 .375 -2.2
The left side of the infield was brutal for the Jays last year. If only they had more players who could have "off" years like Delgado, the Jays would be just fine. Josh Phelps was the only player with more than 30 starts at DH, and he dragged his anchor to a .237/.296/.417 line with the Jays, good for a 2.3 VORP.
Let's take a look at this year's PECOTA projections, broken down similarly to the above 2004 list. In 2005, expect to see Eric Hinske, Hudson, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill and Corey Koskie. (Hill will start the season playing shortstop at Triple-A Syracuse, but may be in line for a position switch to third base or second base.) Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Crozier provide flexibility and may see DH time in place of Phelps and others:
Hinske 1B 27 450 117 26 2 17 52 94 9 4 .259 .338 .442 13.9
Hudson 2B 27 428 116 23 3 11 41 78 6 3 .271 .337 .416 17.6
Adams SS 24 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 14.1
Hill SS 23 267 71 14 1 5 26 39 1 1 .266 .340 .387 12.9
Koskie 3B 32 417 116 25 2 19 57 103 9 4 .278 .373 .487 29.9
Hillenbrand 3B 29 492 140 31 3 15 28 60 2 0 .284 .331 .452 13.0
Crozier 1B 26 236 63 13 1 11 30 65 3 1 .268 .355 .470 14.7
One positive in the Jays' lost season is that they get to replace largely ineffective DH time (soaked up mostly by Phelps last season) with one of their surplus hitters. Of course, when you lose Carlos Delgado--even in an off year--that's hard to replace any way you look at it.
There's upside and downside to the above lineup. The upside is more consistency and reliability. That's the downside, as well, unfortunately. There's not a championship-caliber player like Delgado on the list, and none are likely to have a monster .300/.420/.600 season in them like Delgado might (keep in mind Delgado could have that kind of season in Florida, and you wouldn't know it once the park effect hits him).
What does this mean? Mediocrity. The Jays aren't likely to be as bad as last year, but they're also not going to challenge the Yankees or Red Sox. Third or perhaps fourth place in the AL East seems all too likely in 2005. They've got spare parts to fill gaps, but the real value of those players may be in trade if one of them heats up. All of the above can't be played at the same time, so for now all they provide is potential and flexibility.
--David Kirsch

Thursday, February 10, 2005

BP on Rangers

Texas Rangers
Picking Pedro: The Rangers have languished for years with an ineffective starting pitching staff, although it has often looked worse than it is due to the park factors in Arlington. Texas fans have pined for a starter to set things right, and the team has delivered, with such contracts as the disaster lavished upon Chan Ho Park and the seemingly-endless number of stints that Kenny Rogers has spent with the club.
But this year. This year is different. This year the Rangers have brought on a pitcher who will strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters--Pedro Astacio.
When we last left Mr. Astacio, he was busy racking up a 10.38 ERA in 8 2/3 innings for the eventual World Champs in Boston last last season. That was his comeback from a June 2003 shoulder surgery.
PECOTA isn't optimistic, foretelling a 5.34 ERA and a 6.7 VORP for the 35-year-old Astacio. Even the most optmistic Rangers fan would have to be disapointed if this is the big move of the offseason--Pedro hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 1999, and even in his last full season, with the Mets in 2002, his 12-11 record was only good for an underwhelming 9.2 VORP, or just a shade under one win over replacement.
Of course, every inning that Astacio manages to throw is one fewer thrown by Park, so there is an upside.
No Way, Jose: This past Sunday, the New York Daily News published what it said were details from Jose Canseco's upcoming book, Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big. Given the current media climate around the issue of steroids, reaction was typically muted. Canseco, a man who might seem to be a little short on credibility, even forced the President of the United States to issue a denial, stating that, contrary to Canseco's claim, he wasn't aware of any steroid use during his tenure as the owner of the Rangers.
According to the Daily News, Canseco also claims in the book to have introduced the Rangers to steroids when he arrived in Texas in 1992, including his then-teammates Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Ivan Rodriguez. Is there any evidence in their performance?
26 1991 .322 .389 .532
27 1992 .268 .352 .434
28 1993 .295 .371 .554
29 1994 .319 .392 .550
19 1991 .264 .276 .354
20 1992 .260 .300 .360
21 1993 .273 .315 .412
22 1994 .298 .360 .488
21 1991 .264 .321 .479
22 1992 .260 .304 .529
23 1993 .310 .368 .632
24 1994 .275 .330 .472
Eyeballing those numbers, there's nothing that stands out and screams, "He started juicing!" The only year that seems like a quantum leap is Juan Gone in 1993, but there is a steady build to that peak before the dropoff in 1994.
All three players have denied the reported allegations. We're into Will Carroll territory here, but it seems prudent to reinforce a couple of points. First, players are innocent until proven guilty. Secondly, for good or ill, steroids weren't against the rules of Major League Baseball during Canseco's career. And perhaps most importantly, there isn't any study out there that proves that steroids help players produce more offensively. That doesn't mean that steroids don't help; that means that we don't know that they do. We try to trade in data around here and not conjecture, and we're hoping that people who read Canseco's book will do the same.

Wednesday, February 09, 2005


I'm well aware that this premise has been beaten to death by everything from Mad magazine to Letterman's Top Ten List, but the fact is that the so-called National Pastime continues to threaten to become the National Naptime. Major league baseball has become a kind of Nytol with box scores. That's one of the reasons for the emergence and spread of Fantasy Leagues: to create some contrived reason for us to take interest in a game that increasingly fails to hold our attention on its own merits. With that in mind, it is, once again, time to offer up some innovations that will get fans, and even non-fans, really watching the games again.

--After each home run, all the players on the batter's team, including the batter, must do tequila shots--the hefty two-ouncers.
--If a pitched ball hits the batter, before proceeding to first base the batter gets one free throw of the ball, from a distance of fifty feet, back at the pitcher.
--Any woman who successfully streaks topless completely across the outfield wins a season ticket.
--Replace the tedious seventh inning stretch with a public burning of George Steinbrenner in effigy.
--Instead of uniform numbers, put the players' salaries on the back of the uniforms, to aid the fans in assessing, and loudly commenting on, various players' actual value.
--One in every hundred game balls, inserted at random and unmarked, is chemically rigged to explode upon impact.
--If any pitcher blows a lead of five or more runs, the game will be halted while the pitcher is taken to a "hot seat" near the dugout and subjected to a massive electric shock.
--All outfielders will be required to play their position on Segway transporters.
--During the "dead time" while relievers take warmup pitches, liven things up with Alarmingly Obese Umpire Wind Sprints.
--Four words: Randy Johnson on crack.

Any further suggestions will be most welcome.

Monday, January 31, 2005

Friday, January 28, 2005

BP on Tigers and Royals

Detroit Tigers
Fun With Park Factors: After five years, it's time to check in on how Comerica Park is shaping up as a run environment.
Year Hitting/Pitching
2000 97/97
2001 99/99
2002 93/94
2003 95/95
2004 96/97
100=neutral. Higher numbers favor offense, lower defense.
The Tigers moved the left-center field fence in from 395 to 370 feet after the 2002 season, cutting down on the enormous power alley that Juan Gonzalez complained about during his time with Detroit in 2000. Whether or not Comerica's spacious outfield would have really driven away free-agent hitters is unknown, though Gonzalez's public whining probably did plant some doubts in numbers-conscious sluggers. The Tigers appear to have gotten lucky--they moved the fence in, eliminating any talk that their park was too extreme, but that move has not seriously affected Comerica playing as a good pitchers' park. Detroit needs to recognize this fact and ensure they have the appropriate speed in the outfield to capitalize on Comerica's tendency to depress home runs (0.871 in 2004) and inflate triples (1.844, the highest factor for three-base hits of any park).
Out of the Frying Pan: There were a lot of reasons to believe Jeremy Bonderman was being set up for failure by the Detroit Tigers. He was drafted in the first round out of high school (by the Athletics, of all teams, before being traded to Detroit), a serious risk factor in the development of young pitchers. He spent just one season in A ball before breaking camp with the Tigers in 2003. He endured a brutal first major-league season with Detroit, losing 19 games for a Tigers team that dropped a franchise-record 119. Because of all that, it's easy to forget that Bonderman is still just 22 years old, and to overlook the real strides he has made in his performance:
Year GS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA
2003 28 162 10.7 3.2 6.0 5.56
2004 32 184 8.2 3.6 8.2 4.89
Like many young pitchers, Bonderman needs to cut down on his walk rate to take the next step. He has shown an ability able to improve at the major-league level, though, and he appears ready to assume the mantle of staff ace. Fears that he has been overworked so early in his career seem unfounded. Despite the high total of innings he has racked up, manager Alan Trammell has kept him from having a single start above 121 pitches in his young career, and Bonderman has had a low stress rating in both of his first two years. Bonderman only got stronger down the stretch in 2004, as he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 batting average allowed after the All-Star break.
That Bonderman has largely overcome the hurdle doesn't excuse the Tigers' handling of their young ace. As pointed out in Baseball Prospectus 2004, Detroit's decision to rush him to The Show will prove costly in the long-term, as Bonderman has now racked up two years of major-league service time, and will hit free agency that much sooner. Clearly, having Bonderman as an "indentured servant" during his peak years instead of his developmental phase would have been better for Detroit. The Tigers are a team that can't afford to shell out huge dollars to keep all of its homegrown talent, and so don't have the luxury to make such a mistake.
Fifth with a Bullet: One wouldn't expect the fifth slot in the Tigers rotation to generate much intrigue. However, this year's back-end starter, Wilfredo Ledezma, has perhaps as much promise as any member of the pitching staff. Ledezma was a Rule 5 pick by the Tigers two years ago, nabbed from the Red Sox organization. He understandably struggled in 2003 after jumping from the South Atlantic League (A) to the majors, posting a 5.79 ERA in 84 innings for the Tigers, mostly out of the bullpen. Last season, Ledezma was able to head back to Double-A for much-needed seasoning, and he had a fine half-year in his age-23 season at hitter-friendly Erie, striking out 98 and walking just 24 in 111 2/3 innings.
Ledezma was recalled to Detroit on July 11, and pitched well enough for the Tigers (4.39 ERA, 29 K, 18 BB in 53 1/3 IP) to generate excitement about his future with the team. If Ledezma can build on the improvement he made last season, he could quickly team with Bonderman to provide a young, electric one-two punch at the top of the Detroit rotation.
Kansas City Royals
More Fun With Park Factors: In 1995, Kauffman Stadium underwent a renovation that saw the fences in the alleys moved in from 385 to 375 feet, the fence in center moved from 410 to 400 feet, and the fence height reduced from 12 to nine feet. Ever since then, Kauffman had played as an extremely healthy hitters' park. From 1995-2003, Kauffman averaged a park factor of 106 for batters and pitchers, a trend that grew from 2001-2003, when the park factor jumped to 113 for batters and 112 for pitchers. Kauffman's numbers over that three year span were frighteningly offensive-by contrast, Coors Field only played as a 112/111 during 2003.
Sensing that the rate of offense was getting out of hand, the Royals decided to move the fences back to their original positions of 385 feet in the alleys and 410 in center before the 2004 season. In doing so, they bucked the recent trend of moving fences in to exaggerate offense in the hopes of drawing more fans, a tactic taken most recently by the Tigers and White Sox. The results of the Royals' move were drastic-the park factor fell to 95 for batters and 96 for pitchers last season. Kauffman depressed runs at a rate of 0.910, rating it as the seventh best pitcher's park in baseball. It also had a park factor of 0.706 for home runs, ranking it as the second hardest stadium on homers behind Petco Park.
In the modern age of offense, the Royals decision to return to traditional stadium dimensions is an encouraging sign of sanity and foresight. In general, only two things increase attendance: winning and hosting quality opponents. Moving Kauffman's fences back won't hurt the Royals at the gate, and if it helps to move the organization more towards a commitment to developing quality young arms to benefit from the new dimensions, it could prove to be a major plus.
Calvinist Theology: One of the most interesting developments of last season was the play of Calvin Pickering, the much traveled, and monstrous (6'5, 278 lbs.), first basemen/DH. Pickering is something of an enigma; after having collected just 81 professional ABs from 2002-2003, Pickering caught on with Kansas City in '04 and absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League while at Omaha. In 299 at-bats, Pickering put up a Bondsian .712 slugging percentage by hitting 35 home runs, and then continued his barrage in Kansas City, hitting .246/.338/.500 with seven homers in 122 ABs. PECOTA thinks Pickering, who will still be just 28 in 2005, is for real. Here's his 2005 projection:
337 24 .272 .400 .543 36.6
PECOTA tabs Pickering as the 2005 Royals' offensive MVP. It's doubtful that he will get enough at bats to claim that honor, however. Chronically injured Mike Sweeney, signed to a huge deal, is lodged in the DH slot, and the team is way too high on Ken Harvey at first base. Sweeney, an inferior defender, has been making things difficult for Royals' management recently, demanding that he play first base regularly or be dealt. The situation could be a blessing in disguise for Kansas City, however, for the team would be better off trading Sweeney for a few prospects and playing Pickering everyday at DH.
That would also solve the problem of finding an expendable member of Kansas City management to break the news to Pickering that he is still without a starting job. Our suggestion? Humor Calvin by offering him exclusive first dibs to all 2005 post-game spreads.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

BP on Angels

Anaheim Angels
Against the Grain: As Joe Sheehan noted last week, there is often a disproportionate difference in salary between comparable players eligible for free agency and those eligible only for arbitration. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim however, are becoming a bit of a maverick and free agency seems no different.
Paul Byrd was signed as a free agent to a one-year, $5 million deal back in December, while arbitration eligible Jarrod Washburn reached an one-year accord worth $6.5 million. The two make for an interesting comparison in that their three-year translated averages are similar:
Byrd K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2001 3.94 1.93 2.04 0.89 9.45
2002 4.48 1.15 3.91 1.11 7.18
2004 5.29 1.17 4.53 1.17 8.66
AVG 4.56 1.34 3.42 1.08 8.08
Washburn K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2002 5.65 2.32 2.44 0.82 8.11
2003 4.81 2.25 2.14 1.22 7.60
2004 4.67 2.11 2.21 1.00 8.48
AVG 5.08 2.24 2.27 1.02 8.03
While neither pitcher has a great line, Byrd has made a strong case for being the better of the two over the past three years in which he has pitched. As his strikeout and walk rates have improved. Byrd's HR rate has increased, but Angel Stadium played better for home runs than did Turner Field in 2004, so there is reason to believe that will change. Meanwhile, it seems the Angels are still paying for Washburn's 2002 season. The left-hander has dropped almost a whole strikeout per nine innings in the last three years and though his walks have also decreased, it is not enough to make up for a drop in his K/BB ratio, where Byrd is clearly superior. Still, PECOTA rates them about the same, with a 17.7 VORP forecast for Byrd versus 18.1 for Washburn.
PECOTA also shows Byrd as having a wider range of possible performances, an implicit acknowledgement of his missed time over the past two years. Keep in mind that Byrd didn't miss a start after returning from Tommy John surgery, and the track record has been good for Tommy John survivors of late. Byrd's metrics indicate he has a good chance to beat his PECOTA projection.
Oh Kendry! The Angels signed Cuban defector Kendry Morales to a six-year contract in early December. Scouting Director Eddie Bane has been on record saying that Morales is ready for prime time. Unfortunately, the Angels have nowhere to put him. The Angels have committed to Dallas McPherson at third base and Darin Erstad just won a Gold Glove at first base. Casey Kotchman seems to have the inside track at designated hitter. The outfield is just as crowded with Garret Anderson, Steve Finley and Vladimir Guerrero, to say nothing of Juan Rivera and Jeff DaVanon.
So where does this leave the Angels? It probably gives them a good excuse to send Morales to the minors. As an article in Baseball Prospectus 2005 will cover, Cuban baseball seems comparable to the Carolina League, so this does not seem unreasonable. However, based on the track record of disappointing Cuban hitters, there's a significant risk that Morales' six-year contract will become an albatross.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Words of Wisdom

Remember, there are no losers, only people whose best just isn't good enough - T.Bogg

Monday, January 17, 2005

BP on Rays, Jays

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
New Life for Faded Prospects?: It wasn't that long ago that Josh Phelps graced our cover. (The 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus, in case you're wondering.) He had mashed his way into our hearts, but the league caught up with him. Similarly, Brandon Larson seemed to have a world of hope a couple years ago with the Cincinnati Reds.
Of all teams, curiously the Devil Rays have made a couple of low-risk signings that may pay off in spades. In addition, they may have the right manager to turn them around. For all his faults, Lou Piniella has done the most good with hitters, especially power hitters who haven't quite hit their stride. Chris Sabo, Bret Boone, Mike Pagliarulo, Paul Sorrento and Jay Buhner all seemed to have been positively influenced by Piniella.
Let's look at Larson first. He's continued to mash in Triple-A (OPSes of 1060, 1001 and 871) the last three seasons. PECOTA likes him, but that hasn't yet translated into results in the majors. The risk is that Larson gets labeled a Quadruple-A player and follows the Russ Branyan career path, or worse. Some of his woes may be explained away by nagging injuries; at this point, Larson's window of opportunity is closing. Let's look at his PECOTA projected numbers versus actuals since 2003:
2003 PECOTA 248 62 13 1 12 19 68 2 2 .251 .310 .456 766 14.6
2003 ActCIN 32 89 9 1 0 1 13 31 2 2 .101 .212 .146 358 -11.9
2004 PECOTA 265 68 15 1 14 25 67 3 1 .257 .325 .474 799 16.5
2004 ActCIN 40 118 25 6 0 3 14 35 1 0 .212 .304 .339 643 -1.1
2005 PECOTA 262 68 13 1 15 25 78 2 0 .258 .326 .481 807 11.6
Larson has been a huge underachiever to date, and as such is a solid low-risk proposition by the Devil Rays. If he doesn't work, he can be cast aside without losing much. If he does work out, they've found a nice power hitter for little investment. He's not likely to be with the Devil Rays the next time (if ever?) they win anything, but he could certainly make for some nice swag at the trading deadline.
Now, on to Phelps. Poster boy in 2003, only to be moved in 2004 for a potentially useful career minor leaguer in Eric Crozier. Crozier's PECOTA projection is for a VORP of 14.7 in 236 at bats in 2005.
2003 PECOTA 393 100 23 1 25 42 120 2 2 .255 .334 .508 842 30.6
2003 ActTOR 119 396 106 18 1 20 39 115 1 2 .268 .358 .470 828 23.7
2004 PECOTA 395 107 23 1 24 43 105 2 1 .272 .355 .520 875 27.4
2004 ActTOR 79 295 70 13 2 12 18 73 0 0 .237 .296 .417 713 2.3
2004 ActCLE 24 76 23 6 0 5 4 20 0 0 .303 .338 .579 917 7.5
2005 PECOTA 401 107 23 1 22 36 108 0 1 .267 .339 .495 834 26.3
It wouldn't be surprising to see Piniella and a change of scenery help Phelps turn it around and decimate that projection. Once again, the Devil Rays are in a position to take chances. Either one of these two may pay huge dividends.
Top 50 Prospects: Like the Braves, the Devil Rays have one of the candidates fror best prospect in the game.
Delmon Young. He didn't put up Bondsian numbers. He's still got a ways to go to get to the majors. That's the downside.
He was 18. There wasn't much he didn't do well. Hit for average, hit for power, drew some walks and stole some bases. Young has "hitter" written all over him, and he's likely to get better. What did he do last year, and what does PECOTA expect? Let's look:
2004 A- 131 513 164 26 5 25 53 120 21 6 .320 .386 .536 922
2005 PECOTA 408 106 20 4 12 33 105 8 3 .259 .321 .417 738 10.9
Young may still be a long way from the majors, but a 19-year-old who looks like he could hold his own in the major leagues is special. Ask Ivan Rodriguez. Or Alex Rodriguez. Or the Devil Rays' own B.J. Upton. We still don't know what he'll become as a hitter; for now, there isn't much in the way of limits.
Jonny Gomes. PECOTA wonderboy? Wily Mo Pena was both the subject of ridicule and, eventually, astonishment when PECOTA pegged him for a big year in 2004. Gomes might be this year's version? To be fair, Gomes doesn't have the age advantage of Pena, and he's not highly regarded by scouts for his tools. He's 24 (won't turn 25 until next November), so it's not like he's young enough to have the upside of Young or Upton.
What Gomes has, however, is the ability to hit. Although he's perhaps a little old for a prospect, anyone who's slugged .526 through their minor-league career has merit. Below are his career numbers along with his 2005 PECOTA projection.
2001 PRI App 20 Roo .291 62 206 60 11 2 16 15 4 33 73 .389 .597 986
2002 BAK CAL 21 A .276 133 446 123 24 9 30 15 3 91 173 .431 .572 1003
2003 ORL SOU 22 AA .249 120 442 110 28 3 17 23 2 53 148 .348 .441 789
2004 DUR INT 23 AAA .256 114 390 100 27 1 26 8 5 51 136 .368 .531 899
2005 TB AL 24 MLB .265 272 72 15 2 14 5 2 34 88 .366 .491 857
With Rocco Baldelli out with a torn ACL, Gomes should get some playing time. That doesn't mean he will. The latest word is that Joey Gathright is going to get time in Baldelli's absence. Putting things in perspective, Gathright's projection of -4.5 VORP is the worst among the Devil Rays, below such luminaries as Brook Fordyce and Rey Sanchez. As fast as Gathright may be, as the old cliché goes, you can't steal first base. Gathright's PECOTA projection:
2005 PECOTA 338 85 12 3 1 23 67 23 7 .252 .311 .310 621 -4.5
If the choice is between Joey Gathright and Jonny Gomes, it's not a tough one.
Toronto Blue Jays
Anti-Moneyball? Just when you had J.P. Ricciardi pegged as a Billy Beane disciple, he throws a wrench in the works. Come to think of it, Beane's done that himself this offseason, so perhaps J.P.'s following suit. The similarity ends there, though. Beane realized he needed to retool and decisively made moves to try to inject fresh blood into the A's, all while leaving them options for the future. Ricciardi's latest moves seem like something intended to plug holes in the dam until better options are available.
In the past month, the Jays have gone out and gotten Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis and Billy Koch. Koch comes back to the Jays in a low-risk, low-cost deal; if he finds himself again, he could certainly be nice bait for a mid-season deal. Schoeneweis is a bit more confusing, as he's had one semi-useful campaign in relief.
Let's look at the recent position player acquisitions within the context of dollars per anticipated win (salary divided by projected Wins Above Replacement, in millions).
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Koskie 417 2.8 29.9 3,500,000* $1.25
Hillenbrand 492 1.2 13.0 4,000,000** $3.33
Crozier 236 New 14.7 300,000 $0.20
.. and a couple others for comparison:
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Eric Hinske 450 3.0 13.9 3,000,000 $1.00
Aubrey Huff 534 2.4 40.0 4,500,000 $1.88
* includes pro-rated signing bonus
** high-end estimate at arbitration; 2004
WARP numbers are projected from 2004 PECOTA projection
It's hard to justify the Hillenbrand acquisition, although there are some mitigating factors. He didn't cost a lot in terms of talent--C pitching prospect Adam Peterson--and the Jays seemed to have some money to spend this season. He's not a financial albatross, and can be traded or cut loose fairly readily. There wasn't much left on the market in the way of right-handed power or first basemen. If he puts up good raw numbers, he could be flipped for something useful when a desperate team comes calling mid-season.
The Koskie signing looks like a good value proposition, at least in comparison to the players above. Unfortunately, he's going to be blocking Aaron Hill by the end of this year, and at 32, it's not likely that he'll be revisiting his 2000-03 peak. Expect Koskie to take over third base while Hinske moves across the diamond to first base, with a plethora of options having Hillenbrand and Crozier around. They're certainly covered at third base if anyone gets hurt, having just about cornered the mid-market third basemen.
Top 50 Prospects: The Jays have a deep farm system, but lack the top-tier guy the Devil Rays and Braves each have.
Guillermo Quiroz. 2004 was a tough year for Quiroz. He had all the luster and sheen of a top catching prospect, and a nagging hand injury derailed his season. There's still plenty of opportunity, but he'll wind up moving downward in our prospect list until he can establish that he's healthy and the lost season hasn't derailed his development. His 2004 numbers along with his PECOTA projection:
2004 AAA 76 255 58 19 1 8 28 54 0 0 .227 .309 .404 713
2004 TOR 17 52 11 2 0 0 2 8 1 0 .212 .250 .263 513
2005 PECOTA 291 74 16 1 12 26 68 0 1 .254 .326 .441 767 13.9
Quiroz still projects quite well, albeit in limited playing time. His catching skills are still well regarded; if he continues to build on those and his peripheral batting skills, he won't have to hit for a high average to be valuable. If he does, it'll be gravy. Expect Quiroz to be middle to back of the pack in our Top 50 Prospects list. If he returns healthy and continues to develop, he'll be far more valuable than that.
Russ Adams. Adams is a more difficult story. He looks like he'll be a useful player for a few years, with little or no star potential. The Jays can plug him in, have an affordable shortstop (or second baseman) for a few years, then shift to a utility or backup role. He did have a nice cup of coffee in 2004, but he'll have to keep that up much longer to convince us this is a real change and not sample size variation.
2004 AAA 122 483 139 37 3 5 45 62 6 2 .288 .351 .408 759
2004 TOR 22 72 22 2 1 4 5 5 1 0 .306 .359 .526 887
2005 PECOTA 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 734 14.1
Adams is likely to have a few productive years, then become a utility player or part-timer. Look for him to get an honorable mention in our Top 50 Prospects list.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

BP on White Sox, A's

Baseball Prospectus

Chicago White Sox
Activity v. Progress: What had been a rather quiet offseason for the White Sox suddenly turned busy in the last month as GM Kenny Williams signed several players and made one big trade. The new cast, in order of appearance:
Dustin Hermanson, late the closer of the San Francisco Giants, was signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal, ostensibly to be the eighth-inning man. Hermanson enjoyed moderate success bouncing between the Giants’ pen and rotation for the last year and a half, posting translated ERAs much closer to his more respectable seasons in Montreal than his more recent efforts in Boston and St. Louis. While his ability to step into the rotation in case of injury is a nice bonus, that kind of versatility would have to come with some major perks to justify his contract. Plucking quality pitchers on the cheap to pitch in set-up roles is a skill not yet mastered in a lot of front offices. Considering the short length of Hermanson's contract and its relative size, signing him is not a bad move.
Oakland’s own Lemony Snicket, Jermaine Dye, was signed to a two-year, $10.15M contract to replace the departed (and not offered arbitration) Magglio Ordonez. Dye will be cheaper than Ordonez, but he won’t provide nearly the same offensive punch that Ordonez did until his lost 2004. He hasn’t approached his impressive performances of 1999-2001 since shattering his shin in the 2001 postseason, and has battled through several injuries in the years since then. If the Sox can keep him healthy, he has a chance to post respectable numbers; at an offensive position like right field, however, that would make him league-average at best.
Four days after signing Dye, the Sox shipped one of their best remaining hitters, Carlos Lee, to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and, eventually, prospect Travis Hinton. Perhaps Williams has switched allegiances from Oakland to the Brewers. After calling the White Sox’s third-leading runs scored total in 2004 "deceiving," the Sox declared themselves to be on the speed'n'defense track with this move, hoping to duplicate the success of the Rockies teams that implemented the same plan a few years ago.
There’s just one problem: unless Vizcaino is the best fielding pitcher in history, this trade only solves half that equation. Podsednik’s 2003 success at the plate was out of line with his previous performance record and he regressed badly from it in 2004. How he managed to steal 70 bases with a .313 OBP is beyond us, but that impressive total no doubt masked his below-average offense and defense. If the Sox were strapped for cash or got some decent prospects in return, moving Lee could be defensible. That’s not the case here.
After shipping Lee out of town, the Sox re-signed Juan Uribe to a three-year, $9.75MM deal, rewarding him for an impressive 2004 in which he became one of the first hitters to benefit from leaving Colorado. With the shortstop not eligible for free agency for a few more seasons, the White Sox would have been better off giving Uribe one more year to prove that 2004 wasn’t a fluke, but the faults in a deal of this size are minimal.
Having been unable to lure Randy Johnson to the South Side, just before Christmas the Sox settled for Orlando Hernandez on a two-year, $8MM contract. A suspect 35 years old, Hernandez has been effective when he's been available, and the length and cost of his contract fits in with the lower tier of starting pitchers this off-season. If El Duque can manage 150-175 innings of reasonable pitching in 2005, the deal will be a bargain. If he breaks down, the Sox haven’t lost much.
To complete the puzzle, and still seeking to emulate the Twins, the Sox picked up discarded catcher A.J. Pierzynski for one year and $2.25MM. Pierzynski struggled last year in San Francisco, both with the bat and with his teammates, but Ben Davis is not the answer at catcher for the Sox. Taking a shot on Pierzynski isn’t a bad idea, especially on a small contract like this one.
Oakland Athletics
Deal With It: The A’s did their Christmas shopping early this year, swapping out Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in a pair of mid-December trades, moves that have been analyzed more intensely than most bills in Congress. The deal that may have fallen through the cracks, coming just a day before the Hudson deal, was the swap of Justin Lehr and Nelson Cruz for Milwaukee second baseman Keith Ginter. In retrospect, the deal cleared the way for the Hudson trade that brought in Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas: Cruz neatly replaces Lehr in the pen while Thomas becomes the default option for a fourth outfielder.
The shakeup leaves as many questions as answers, the first of which is who will be playing second base when the season starts. While Mark Ellis looked to be in line for a return to the job he forfeited last year because of a bum shoulder, Ginter’s arrival signals a lack of faith on the A’s part that Ellis can perform well enough to hold down the regular job. Ellis’ 2003 was distinctly different than 2002 and previous seasons. His batting line (.248/.313/.371) regressed from his established levels from his minor-league career and rookie season, while his defense showed distinct improvement in his second year since moving over from shortstop. He looked in line for an offensive rebound in 2004, but with the year lost to injury, questions about his ability to hit are compounded by questions about health and how the injury will affect his play both in the box and on the field.
On the other hand, while Ginter has never been a superstar with the glove, totaling -13 FRAA over 2003-2004, his impressive power last year--19 home runs, .479 SLG--makes him a significant upgrade over Ellis with the bat. With extreme groundballers Mulder and Hudson now absent from the rotation, Ellis’ defense suddenly becomes less of an argument for playing him. If the A’s keep both players on the roster, they could conceivably be used in a bit of an offense/defense platoon with Ellis playing behind the more groundball-inclined pitchers (Rich Harden) while Ginter sees time when Barry Zito and other flyballers are on the mound. Realistically, the difference between the two is slight, leaving the job to go to the player who looks better in spring training.
The other big lineup question created by the trades is in the outfield. Until Thomas was acquired, the A’s appeared set with an Eric Byrnes/Mark Kotsay/Nick Swisher outfield. With Thomas aboard, rumors have begun that Byrnes--likely due a healthy raise in arbitration--is headed out of town to either Arizona or the New York Mets. Having shipped out two of their highest paid players, the A’s still have a good deal of room between their committed capital and their publicly stated payroll of $61.5MM. An extra $700,000 or so to Byrnes isn’t going to break the A’s bank and the difference between Byrnes and Thomas as an everyday player is significant.
Thomas has shown the A’s favorite skill, drawing walks, in spades in the low minors, but until he hit Double-A Greenville with Atlanta in late 2003, he had shown a complete absence of the ability to hit. Before his late season surge in 2003, Thomas had amassed a career .254 batting average in over 1000 ABs in the low minors. That’s a healthy sample size against a low quality of competition, justifying many of the concerns about a then 24-year-old in Single-A. Suddenly, however, Thomas started raking, hitting .343 in Double- and Triple-A before performing well (.288/.368/.445) in just over 200 ABs in Atlanta. With that improved BA, though, came a loss in his plate discipline; Thomas drew just 12 unintentional walks in more than 250 plate appearances with the Braves last season.
Like Thomas, Byrnes had one of his best years in 2004, hitting .283/.347/.467 in full-time action in left field. Despite his speed, his defense is still just average, but Thomas’ isn’t significantly better. With only the shell of Bobby Kielty left on the A’s outfield bench, shipping Byrnes out of town would leave the A’s significantly short-handed if injury strikes or rookie Swisher struggles. The small expense to keep Byrnes is both within the A’s budget and worth it for the risk it deters as well as the likely performance difference between Byrnes and Thomas.

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

BP on Rangers

Texas Rangers
Take It Easy: As we creep up on five weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, the question has to be asked: What the hell is going on with the Texas Rangers? In an offseason marked mostly by inaction and continuing rumors about Alfonso Soriano, the Rangers have been very quiet on the free-agent market.
Player POS Former Team Date Signed Contract
Brocail, Doug RP TEX 11/11/04 One-year contract, $1 million
Alexander, Manny 2B TEX 11/19/04 Minor league contract
German, Esteban 2B OAK 11/19/04 Minor league contract
Standridge, Jason RP TB 11/19/04 Minor league contract
Wasdin, John RP TEX 11/19/04 Minor league contract
Machado, Robert C BAL 11/30/04 Minor league contract
Alomar, Sandy C CWS 12/08/04 One-year contract, $550,000
Hidalgo, Richard OF NYM 12/10/04 One-year contract, $5 million
Colbrunn, Greg 1B ARI 12/17/04 Minor league contract
Dellucci, David OF TEX 12/20/04 Two-year contract, $1.8 million
Zimmerman, Jeff RP TEX 12/21/04 Minor league contract
As far as they've gone, the Rangers have done well. Signing Richard Hidalgo for $5 million could be the steal of the offseason. In fact, in terms of the production expected by PECOTA for the money, Hidalgo's contract is the best value of the offseason (look for much, much more about this from Nate Silver in the near future). We've talked about the lack of production from the Rangers' outfield nearly every time we've looked at them, so you're probably sick of hearing about it; Hildago is a step in the right direction.
And as we noted in our discussion of the Beltran deal, keeping contracts short and cheap is a good strategy, as it gives a team flexibility. The Rangers have only signed up for five player-years and $8.3 million this offseason, which means that they've done a good job giving themselves options for the future.
But all the payroll flexibility in the world is meaningless if you don't use it to your advantage. It's the flip side of sitting out the bidding on huge free agent--you might find yourself with money in the bank and with no players worth spending it on.
The main rumor swirling around the Texas landscape is the Rangers making a run at Carlos Delgado, and perhaps trading Soriano to keep their budget in line. But Texas already has a slugging first baseman, one who just happened to lead the AL in VORP at the position last year. Here's the top three:
Mark Teixeira TEX 1b 625 0.281 0.370 0.560 52.6
Paul Konerko CHA 1b 643 0.277 0.359 0.535 48.1
Carlos Delgado TOR 1b 551 0.269 0.372 0.535 41.4
Admittedly, this was a down year for Delgado, who had posted 60+ VORPs each of the previous three seasons. But he'll also turn 33 during the 2005 season, and it's hard to imagine that we haven't seen the best baseball of his career already.
Delgado is reportedly looking for $15 million or more a year, which should inspire every GM in the game to snicker. Given those demands, and Teixeira's emergence, it's hard to understand why the Rangers are even mentioned in connection with Delgado, except that they're like a shopper on the day after Christmas who got a big fat check from Grandma and can't wait to spend it.
We know it's hard to pass up signing a big free agent if you've got the cash. But if the Rangers pull the trigger on Delgado, it will blow away all of the good work that gave them the flexibility to make the move in the first place.

Friday, January 07, 2005

Who's on First

Who's on First?
By Blez on Wed Jan 5th, 2005
Scott Hatteberg. Erubiel Durazo. Dan Johnson. Nick Swisher. Jack Cust.
They are all in the mix for two positions. First base and designated hitter. Swisher and Cust both play the outfield for those of you scoring at home. But many have Swisher pegged as a first baseman in the not-too-distant future and Cust is an average outfielder at best.
But in all likelihood, in 2005, it will come down to Durazo, Johnson and Hatteberg for those two positions. The problem is, they all hit left-handed, so it doesn't make any sense to platoon unless Swisher is in the mix because he is a switch hitter.
Durazo is slotted for the DH position, and he's earned it with his performance over the past year. He was probably the most consistent Athletic offensively outside of Mark Kotsay.
It comes down to Hatteberg and Johnson. This is where it gets interesting because DJ is ready for the show. I live in Sacramento and saw the kid a bunch last year. He's a quality at-bat every time. His stats are there. He performs at every level.
Hatteberg was a key offensive contributor during the first few months of the season but tailed off considerably down the stretch. The normally reliable .390 or so OBP Hatteberg posted a dreadful T-Long like .292 in September in 2004. Many speculated that he was fatigued from playing so many games earlier in the year. Regardless, he was a part of the general malaise that set in with the green and gold down the stretch.
If the A's are truly trying to retool and build a young base for success, Hatteberg becomes the expendable one. He's got the biggest contract and the lowest upside.
On the other hand, Johnson suffered from vertigo late in the year last season and missed a chance to get a few ABs in September when the Mad Hatter was struggling so badly. Who knows whether DJ will come back 100 percent?
In March, this will be one of the more interesting developments with the green and gold. Will Hatteberg and his contract be moved? Will DJ be healthy?
Where's Graham Koonce when you need him? (just kidding)

BP on Indians and Mariners

Baseball Prospectus

Cleveland Indians
"The Negotiators": A lot of movies and television shows have focused on a profession that probably didn't exist a few decades ago: the professional crisis negotiator. This is the person who tries to talk jumpers off of ledges when ordinary street cops would probably say something like, "If you're gonna jump, can't you do it on the other side of the building outside of my beat so I don't gotta do a lot of paperwork?" These people are expert in convincing others not to do rash, silly things that might have long-term negative consequences.
We at BP are hereby announcing our services as Professional Baseball Crisis Negotiators. Here's how it works: whenever your team is on the verge of doing something with the resources you help contribute with your ticket/merchandise/concession/parking purchases, place a call to us and we will fly in one of our Professional Baseball Crisis Negotiators who will then try to talk the club out of whatever folly they're about to perpetrate. We might do this face-to-face, by appointment. More than likely, though, we'll have to do it from behind a bullhorn, outside the team's offices.
Had we come up with this idea earlier in the offseason, we would have already made a few trips to Arizona, Washington and New York. Right now, though, the call needs to come in from Cleveland where the Indians are on the verge of signing Kevin Millwood to a one-year deal for $7,000,000.
Here's what we would shout through the bullhorn to Indians general manager, Mark Shapiro:
"Mark, you're smarter than this. You are. You know you are. Believe in yourself. You've got the length of service right, Mark. One year. Good job on that part. But think of it this way: if Millwood were worth seven mil a year, wouldn't he be getting more years from some other team? See? That's your tip-off, Mark! He and Scott Boras will settle for one year. Two million, tops. That's how much it should cost to look in that particular box and see if there are any surprises left. Trust yourself, Mark! We're here to help. Let's talk this thing out...what? What do you mean, "what am I doing?" I'm having a conversation with Indians GM, Mark Shapiro--what does it look like I'm doing? Hey, you don't have to cuff me..." And so on.
In the context of the 2004-05 free-agent shenanigans, is Millwood's deal really all that out of line? In a world where Russ Ortiz gets 4/$33MM, perhaps not, but a question mark is a question mark whether it's signed for one year or four. Is a pitcher who has one truly outstanding season in seven tries worth the risk at that kind of money? As we said above, the length of the contract shows the Indians are hedging their bets. Maybe they think they can afford to chuck $7 million on a look-see. A much smarter look-see is the Red Sox signing of Wade Miller for the same length of time but at a fraction of the price.
Miller and Millwood were fairly comparable in 2002-03 (combined VORP of 67.4 for Millwood and 60.7 for Miller). Both ran into arm trouble last year and missed a considerable number of starts. When they did pitch, though, Miller was superior, boasting a VORP of 21.8 to Millwood's 9.3. Both have comparable strikeout rates (within a quarter-K per nine). Miller is two years younger.
Millwood, of course, has more "experience." Now, if they were in the first few years in the bigs and playing at the major-league minimum, then experience would count because it's codified in the Collective Bargaining Agreement to be that way. It doesn't have to be that way in the unprotected, free-wheeling, every-man-for-himself world of free agency, though. If the Indians want to reward Millwood for having pitched in the big leagues longer than Miller or because he ripped it up real good back in 1999, then give him an additional 500 EBFB (extra big fun bucks). To our way of thinking, the Red Sox established what the market value is for moderately successful starting pitchers coming off injuries is when they signed Miller to one year at $1.5 mil. Because of that, anything beyond $2 million for Millwood is excessive on the Indians' part.
Seattle Mariners
Poking Around: As we've mentioned before, there is a great deal of pride regarding these Prospectus Triple Plays. Those of us who write them come to strongly identify with the triumvirate we are assigned. In this house, we make no bones about it: we are rooting hard for a Cleveland/Washington or Seattle/Washington World Series.
Just when our hopes start to rise that maybe we'll be sitting in the BP luxury box at RFK Stadium watching the Mariners and Nationals duke it out in late October, Seattle goes and signs Pokey Reese to be their starting shortstop.
Given that Seattle had three big question marks in the infield, it's nice that they added one player whose performance can be counted on. This much we know about Reese: he's going to field well and he's not going to get on base often or hit for any power. We also know that there's a good chance he will miss a significant amount of time to an injury of some sort. He had three of them last year and missed most of 2003, too. (One thing we don't know about Reese is how often he'll attempt to steal. In his favor, he is an exceptional thief with an 84% career success rate.) Reese has not qualified for a batting title since 2000, so it's interesting that he is getting the nod as the team's starter. If it works out for him, it makes for a nice career transition. He went to the Red Sox last year knowing there was a chance he would be a backup and he got a ring out of the deal. Now he can resume his starting career. Would that all our careers rebounded that well from adversity.
The Other Guys: Surrounding the predictable Reese in the infield, the Mariners have these questions:
Can Richie Sexson get back to where he once belonged? Will Safeco crush him like a speeding train?
Bret Boone: off-year or big signpost on the way to U.S. Highway 86?
Adrian Beltre: 2004: one-year spike or booster rocket that got him out of sub-orbital flight of first stage of career? (Please say you noticed the transportation-themed allusions in these three comments!)
Now that Seattle has tied up the GNP of Sweden at first and third base, is it possible they could find a taker for Scott Spiezio? Last year's free-agent signatory has now been made redundant at not one but two of his favored positions. Furthermore, does Seattle have a need for Spiezio and Willie Bloomquist? The latter has, at least, played shortstop, a skill that will come in handy if and when Reese can't answer the bell.

Tuesday, January 04, 2005

BP on Baltimore

Baseball Prospectus

Baltimore Orioles
Much Ado: The Baltimore-DC metro area has picked up a lot of players this off-season, but they have something in common that will vex Orioles fans: they're all Washington Nationals. (Then again, Orioles fans are probably not the least bit upset that they didn't land big prizes like Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman for the small sum of $23,000,000. By doing nothing, Orioles VP of baseball ops Jim Beattie has already established himself as the smarter of the two Jims running clubs in the region.)
Given the absurd market that developed for most free agents this winter, the Orioles might win in the end for having sat this one out. Sure, they probably threw some cash at a few of these guys, but to their credit never panicked and said, "We must land this guy." Carl Pavano, one likely target, signed with the Yankees for four years and a hair under ten million per; while the Yankees made a more attractive target than Baltimore, it's likely that the O's could have had Pavano if they had gone to five years or $45 million. Some teams in the Orioles' position might have.
The only signing to make some noise in the Inner Harbor was the two-year pickup of Steve Kline. The lefty reliever market was set when Rheal Cormier, a lesser talent, signed with the Phillies for two years, $5.25 million. Kline's good enough, but he's not going to vault the team into the playoffs. These sorts of pickups are like eating at Applebee's: serviceable, good portion size and you needed to eat something, but you come away feeling like fast food would have been a better value.
Second Act: We should qualify all of the above by saying that the Orioles aren't out of the woods yet when it comes to avoiding desperation. They seem hot in pursuit of Carlos Delgado, another player with a big STAY AWAY sign around his neck. Mind you, that's no knock on Delgado, who hits consistently and for power. Rather, it's a testament to the realities of this off-season: Troy Glaus, four years, $45 million; Richie Sexson, four years, $50 million.
Delgado's agent got some laughs when he said that his client would not take a cut from his last contract, which paid him $17 million annually, and which the Blue Jays would gladly have shed almost the minute it was signed. But if Glaus ($11 million) and Sexson ($12.8 million), who are worse bets, can fetch what they have, who's to say the agent won't be right?
Baltimore has done a good job so far of walking away when the price goes too high. If the bidding for Delgado goes the way of most of this winter's studs, it will take restraint to prove that those wise decisions have been intentional.

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