Minnesota Twins
Signed, Sealed Santana: The Twins averted arbitration with Johan Santana, signing their ace southpaw to a four-year, $39.75 million deal, the richest in team history. Of course, that designation isn't saying much, as this is a franchise that under Clark and Calvin Griffith threw nickels around as if they were manhole covers. They're currently in the hands of the miserly Montgomery Burns Carl Pohlad, who's 89 years old and worth $2.2 billion, according to Forbes, making him the 247th richest man in the world. Pohlad didn't get rich paying exorbitant salaries to those old Federal League bandits and he's not about to start now, so that rapscallion Santana could forget about his nice, round $40 million dollar deal. Smithers, unleash the hounds...
Santana, who turns 26 in March, will reportedly earn $5.5 million this season, $9 million in 2006, $12 million in 2007 and $13.25 million in 2008. All told, it's not a bad deal compared to the other four-year pacts inked with various pitchers this winter:
Career ---2004--- ---2005---
Age $Mil ERA ERA VORP ERA VORP
Lowe 32 36 3.88 5.42 -11.5 4.01 17.6
Martinez 33 53 2.71 3.90 51.2 2.93 53.3
Ortiz 30 33 4.00 4.13 33.1 5.02 12.1
Pavano 29 ~40 4.21 3.00 62.4 4.64 21.3
Santana 26 ~40 3.47 2.57 88.8 3.11 63.6
Those last two columns are via our 2005 PECOTA projections. Santana is the third most-expensive of the bunch over the life of his four-year deal (Carl Pavano edges him by a mere by $200,000; the new Yankee hurler's contract is actually for $39,950,000, apparently just to annoy people who make neat little fixed-width charts for the Web), but he's also the youngest by a good three years, and projects to have the highest VORP of the bunch in 2005 (Pedro Martinez can thank pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium for the rosiest ERA projection).
The reason the Santana deal looks so good for the Twins is that unlike the other four pitchers, he was still two years away from free agency. But given that the pitcher was seeking $6.8 million in arbitration this year (with the Twins offering $5 million), this is quite a bargain for the Twins on the front end. More importantly, the franchise's most valuable commodity is a happy camper, safely tucked away until the next presidential election.
Will Whoever Stole Terry Ryan's Pants Please Return Them? As with the Santana case, the Twins avoided going to arbitration with Carlos Silva by settling beforehand. This solid mid-rotation workhorse, who put up a 4.21 ERA in 203 innings, good for a 40.5 VORP, was seeking $2.225 million, while the Twins were offering $1.65 million. The two sides agreed to a two-year, $5.05 million deal which includes a club option in the third year that can escalate from $4 million up to $5.75 million based on the number of innings Silva pitches. The deal also has some minor incentive clauses triggered by those innings. In other words, the more of a workhorse he is over the next two years, the bigger his payday. Fair enough.
But the Twins were unable to avoid arbitration with a third starter, Kyle Lohse, and the results of the case illustrate why teams are so wary of the process. Lohse went 9-13 with a whopping 5.34 ERA in 194 innings pitched, which translated into a measly VORP of 6.3. Among pitchers who threw 162 innings or more (qualifying for the ERA title, as if...), only six were worse. In other words, Lohse stunk on ice like few pitchers in the game last year.
Lohse made $395,000 last year and was seeking a $2.4 million salary for 2005, while the Twins were offering $2.15 million. So with a quarter million dollars standing between them and Lohse's lousy campaign on the books for last year, you'd figure the Twins would be able to make an easy case and save themselves a bit of money to buy Joe Mauer that pony that he's been pining for ever since the subject was broached last month.
They lost the case.
It's tempting to wonder whether they showed up with the Silva dossier and lost on a technicality, or whether some insurance salesman wandered into the wrong hotel conference room while GM Terry Ryan was stuck in traffic and simply decided to wing it. "Hell, I like baseball, I can do this," thinks the insurance salesman, straightening his bowtie as he imagines those poor saps still stuck in that boring seminar on proper cold-calling techniques that he ditched "to go get some [cough, cough] cough drops." After Lohse's agent spends five minutes arguing that his client and Johan Santana have the same number of chromosomes and thus share similar pitching abilities, the Twins are $250,000 lighter and Carl Pohlad is unleashing the hounds on a school full of unsuspecting kindergartners waving Homer Hankies. Not pretty.
And also not bloody likely, since the arbitration process is rather circumscribed. If you've ever wanted to know what goes on in that room when team and player square off, what criteria are admissible and what aren't Tom Gorman's piece on arbitration is a must-read.
San Francisco Giants
Brian's Song: Earler this month, the Giants extended the contract of GM Brian Sabean through 2006. Since Sabean took the helm in 1997, the team has won three NL West division titles, a wild card and a pennant. They trail only the Yankees and the Braves in victories over that time:
Tm Tot W AVG
NYY 795 99.4
ATL 791 98.9
SFG 738 92.3
BOS 717 89.6
HOU 711 88.9
OAK 709 88.6
STL 706 88.3
SEA 701 87.6
LAN 690 86.3
CLE 675 84.4
Recall that before Sabean joined the Giants as their assistant GM back in December 1992, he was the Yankees' Vice President of Scouting and Player Development. As Andrew Baharlias wrote nearly a year ago, Sabean stands as one of the few Yankee Baseball Operations executives of any significance to elude the Defensive Employee Retention Program, George Steinbrenner's attempt to corner the market on baseball brains.
Sabean has taken a rather unorthodox tack during his tenure with the Giants, particularly recently. The past two winters have seen him jump the gun to sign free agents before the December 7 arbritration offer date, thereby causing the team to surrender its first-round pick in the June amateur draft for the likes of Michael Tucker and Omar Vizquel. Furthermore, the Giants appear to have quite a thing for such bluehaired free-agents as Vizquel (38 this coming season), Moises Alou (38) and Mike Matheny (34, which in catcher-years is like great-grandma old), and he was quick to pick up the team's options on Marquis Grissom (38) and J.T. Snow (37).
Meanwhile, the team appears to have more or less given up producing major league-ready hitters from within. Last year the Giants gave Pedro Feliz more than 500 plate appearances, scary enough given his .305 OBP. Remarkably, that's the first time since 1997 (Bill Mueller) that they made a regular out of an entirely homegrown player, one they had either drafted or signed as an amateur free agent. Even if we lower the bar to 300 plate appearances and work backwards chronologically, it takes nearly two full decades to field a theoretical "starting eight" of homegrown players:
Pos Player Year
C Kirt Manwaring 1992
1B Pedro Feliz 2004
2B Robby Thompson 1986
SS Royce Clayton 1992
3B Bill Mueller 1997
LF Mike Aldrete 1988
CF Marvin Benard 1996
RF Armando Rios 2001
A few caveats: left field has been occupied for the past decade by a guy who's only one of the best hitters ever, and the likelihood of anybody coming up with a rookie to beat him out is somewhere between zero and Neifi's VORP. Mike Aldrete got more than 300 PA while spending time at all three outfield positions in '87 and became the regular left fielder in '88. Feliz was a rare multiposition regular last season, playing only 70 games at first, another 37 at third, and 20 at shortstop. All told, only three of these players became regulars during Sabean's first eight years as GM, and one, Armando Rios, was shipped out to Pittsburgh mere weeks after he'd crossed that threshold.
The story with regards to pitchers is a bit happier. Starters Jerome Williams, Noah Lowry, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Jensen, Russ Ortiz and Joe Nathan are all homegrown products who broke in on Sabean's watch. While none of them is Jason Schmidt (shhhh, don't tell the Diamondbacks) and the last four on that list have moved on, Lowry (3.82 ERA and 17.9 VORP in 92 innings last year) and Williams (4.24 ERA and 13.8 VORP in 129.1 IP) figure to slot in this year's rotation directly behind Schmidt. Foppert (5.03 ERA and 1.2 VORP in 111 innings in 2003), who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, will bid for a spot as well, with a bullpen role more likely. Meanwhile, other Giants draftees who got cups of coffee last year may see time in the bullpen as well: David Aardsma (the team's first pick in 2003 and the man who supplanted Hank Aaron as the all-time alphabetical frontrunner), Brad Hennessey (their 2001 first pick) and Kevin Correia.
Robbbbed: Former Giants closer Robb Nen announced his retirement last week. Nen had missed the past two seasons with a smorgasbord of shoulder woes that included tears to both his labrum and his rotator cuff, three surgeries, several false starts and plenty of Under the Knife mentions. According to the San Jose Mercury News, in 2002 Nen decided to pitch through a partial rotator cuff tear that the Giant training staff informed him was career-threatening, and he's not looking back in anger: "I wouldn't have changed it. If we were 20 games out, that would have changed it, but not when you're trying to get to the playoffs and get to the World Series."
Nen ranks 13th on the all-time saves list and put up some triple-digit radar readings and sub-2.00 ERAs over the course of his career. Nen's final major league appearance was a blown save that cost the Giants their first World Championship since 1954, but he got a raw deal on that one. Summoned to protect a one-run lead in the eighth inning of Game Six, he inherited a mess from Tim Worrell: nobody out, with pinch-runner Chone Figgins on third base and Garret Anderson on second thanks to a Barry Bonds bobble. That's an expectation of 1.9722 runs. He promptly surrendered a two-run double to Troy Glaus, the first hitter he faced, allowing the (Wherever They Were Claiming to Be From in 2002) Angels to take the lead and subsequently tie the series, forcing Game Seven. They trailed that one from the third inning onward, so Nen never got a shot at redemption. Tough break.
--Jay Jaffe
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Friday, February 11, 2005
BP on Rays and Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Lamar Giveth, and Lamar Taketh Away: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...wait, this is the Devil Rays, not the Sharks.
After teasing us with a glint of promise and bringing in Josh Phelps and Brandon Larson, two players with significant upside--the Devil Rays seemed determined to spite us for our kind words. Rather than signing Joe Randa, a mediocrity who would have played well enough at third base to ensure B.J. Upton an opportunity at shortstop, they signed the badder Alex Gonzalez.
Gonzalez's value has been largely based on his defense the last few years--he's basically your low batting average shortstop who doesn't draw a walk yet can hit with a little pop. Now it looks like the pop is fizzling.
Age YR TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
29 2002 CHI-N 142 513 127 27 5 18 46 136 5 3 .248 .312 .425 22.6
30 2003 CHI-N 152 536 122 37 0 20 47 123 3 3 .228 .295 .409 13.9
31 2004 CHI-N 37 129 28 10 0 3 4 26 1 1 .217 .241 .364 -2.9
31 2004 MON-N 35 133 32 7 0 4 8 32 1 1 .241 .289 .383 1.5
31 2004 SD-N 11 23 4 1 1 0 2 6 0 0 .174 .240 .304 -1.0
That's an anti-Bondsian line of .223/.263/.368 during the 2004 campaign. Gonzalez never really developed since breaking in with the Blue Jays in 1994, and now he looks like he's on the slippery slope downwards. To put it another way, last year Gonzalez hit roughly the way a typical hitter did against Cy Young winner Roger Clemens. He's gone from a VORP of 22.6 to 13.9 to -2.4 the last three seasons; that's downright scary. So how is he going to add value at third base?
To add insult to injury, Will Carroll has Gonzalez flagged with a red light in his Team Health Report on the Devil Rays.
Basically, the Devil Rays have three reasonable options at shortstop. Gonzalez is clearly the worst of the three, and age may be hitting him hard. He could be insurance for Julio Lugo if B.J. Upton starts the year at Triple-A Durham, but is it really that important if you're the Devil Rays?
Their best option is to see if Upton is ready in spring training; his bat is already there, but if necessary they can farm him out to work on his fielding. Either way, at that point Lugo has to play. When Upton settles into the shortstop job, Lugo becomes a valuable player in trade. Gonzalez need not fit in the equation.
One Way to Avoid Wood-Chipping Young Arms: Lou Piniella can have a positive effect on hitters, especially those with power potential who haven't hit their peak. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for young pitchers. So what's one way to solve the problem? Sign "proven veterans."
In the past month, Hideo Nomo and Denny Neagle have signed with the Devil Rays, and Casey Fossum has been acquired in trade. Normally, that would be underwhelming, but when the rest of the rotation is Scott Kazmir, Mark Hendrickson, Dewon Brazelton, Doug Waechter and Rob Bell, you need help. Let's look at what PECOTA expects in 2005:
Player G IP H HR BB SO ERA VORP
Fossum 25 125.1 130 17 48 106 4.72 13.6
Neagle 16 80.2 85 12 27 51 4.72 11.7
Nomo 22 103.2 105 17 48 72 4.86 12.7
Kazmir 19 98.0 85 13 53 85 4.51 15.5
Hendrickson 26 142.2 170 20 40 74 5.22 10.7
Brazelton 21 114.1 127 17 49 72 5.48 7.1
Waechter 21 74.1 78 14 37 46 5.84 2.6
Bell 20 98.0 108 14 34 56 5.01 9.8
Including Fossum and the incumbent five, that projects to a total VORP of 59.3. That's not a pretty pitching staff, and it's one badly in need of an ace. Kazmir is the best chance for that, but the most important thing for him at this point is surviving the injury nexus. His making it through 2005 healthy is more important than his mowing down the league. Putting things in perspective, in 1997, the Braves' rotation averaged better than the combined VORP projection for the 2005 Devil Rays. Each Braves starter was more effective individually than what we anticipate from the entire Devil Rays' staff.
Perhaps there is good reason to take flyers on Nomo and Neagle, after all--even if they're only short-term stopgaps.
Toronto Blue Jays
Reshaping the Infield: 2004 was not kind to the Blue Jays in general. One specific problem they had was an infield that was ineffective, whether it was due to injury, poor play or some combination thereof. Last year's totals, with Carlos Delgado, Orlando Hudson, Chris Gomez, Chris Woodward and Eric Hinske:
Player Pos Age AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
Delgado 1B 32 458 123 26 0 32 69 115 0 1 .269 .372 .535 41.4
Hudson 2B 26 489 132 32 7 12 51 98 7 3 .270 .341 .438 27.4
Gomez SS 33 341 96 11 1 3 28 41 3 2 .282 .337 .346 7.2
Woodward SS 28 213 50 13 4 1 14 46 1 2 .235 .283 .347 -2.6
Hinske 3B 26 570 140 23 3 15 54 109 12 8 .246 .313 .375 -2.2
The left side of the infield was brutal for the Jays last year. If only they had more players who could have "off" years like Delgado, the Jays would be just fine. Josh Phelps was the only player with more than 30 starts at DH, and he dragged his anchor to a .237/.296/.417 line with the Jays, good for a 2.3 VORP.
Let's take a look at this year's PECOTA projections, broken down similarly to the above 2004 list. In 2005, expect to see Eric Hinske, Hudson, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill and Corey Koskie. (Hill will start the season playing shortstop at Triple-A Syracuse, but may be in line for a position switch to third base or second base.) Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Crozier provide flexibility and may see DH time in place of Phelps and others:
Player Pos Age AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
Hinske 1B 27 450 117 26 2 17 52 94 9 4 .259 .338 .442 13.9
Hudson 2B 27 428 116 23 3 11 41 78 6 3 .271 .337 .416 17.6
Adams SS 24 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 14.1
Hill SS 23 267 71 14 1 5 26 39 1 1 .266 .340 .387 12.9
Koskie 3B 32 417 116 25 2 19 57 103 9 4 .278 .373 .487 29.9
Hillenbrand 3B 29 492 140 31 3 15 28 60 2 0 .284 .331 .452 13.0
Crozier 1B 26 236 63 13 1 11 30 65 3 1 .268 .355 .470 14.7
One positive in the Jays' lost season is that they get to replace largely ineffective DH time (soaked up mostly by Phelps last season) with one of their surplus hitters. Of course, when you lose Carlos Delgado--even in an off year--that's hard to replace any way you look at it.
There's upside and downside to the above lineup. The upside is more consistency and reliability. That's the downside, as well, unfortunately. There's not a championship-caliber player like Delgado on the list, and none are likely to have a monster .300/.420/.600 season in them like Delgado might (keep in mind Delgado could have that kind of season in Florida, and you wouldn't know it once the park effect hits him).
What does this mean? Mediocrity. The Jays aren't likely to be as bad as last year, but they're also not going to challenge the Yankees or Red Sox. Third or perhaps fourth place in the AL East seems all too likely in 2005. They've got spare parts to fill gaps, but the real value of those players may be in trade if one of them heats up. All of the above can't be played at the same time, so for now all they provide is potential and flexibility.
--David Kirsch
Lamar Giveth, and Lamar Taketh Away: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...wait, this is the Devil Rays, not the Sharks.
After teasing us with a glint of promise and bringing in Josh Phelps and Brandon Larson, two players with significant upside--the Devil Rays seemed determined to spite us for our kind words. Rather than signing Joe Randa, a mediocrity who would have played well enough at third base to ensure B.J. Upton an opportunity at shortstop, they signed the badder Alex Gonzalez.
Gonzalez's value has been largely based on his defense the last few years--he's basically your low batting average shortstop who doesn't draw a walk yet can hit with a little pop. Now it looks like the pop is fizzling.
Age YR TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
29 2002 CHI-N 142 513 127 27 5 18 46 136 5 3 .248 .312 .425 22.6
30 2003 CHI-N 152 536 122 37 0 20 47 123 3 3 .228 .295 .409 13.9
31 2004 CHI-N 37 129 28 10 0 3 4 26 1 1 .217 .241 .364 -2.9
31 2004 MON-N 35 133 32 7 0 4 8 32 1 1 .241 .289 .383 1.5
31 2004 SD-N 11 23 4 1 1 0 2 6 0 0 .174 .240 .304 -1.0
That's an anti-Bondsian line of .223/.263/.368 during the 2004 campaign. Gonzalez never really developed since breaking in with the Blue Jays in 1994, and now he looks like he's on the slippery slope downwards. To put it another way, last year Gonzalez hit roughly the way a typical hitter did against Cy Young winner Roger Clemens. He's gone from a VORP of 22.6 to 13.9 to -2.4 the last three seasons; that's downright scary. So how is he going to add value at third base?
To add insult to injury, Will Carroll has Gonzalez flagged with a red light in his Team Health Report on the Devil Rays.
Basically, the Devil Rays have three reasonable options at shortstop. Gonzalez is clearly the worst of the three, and age may be hitting him hard. He could be insurance for Julio Lugo if B.J. Upton starts the year at Triple-A Durham, but is it really that important if you're the Devil Rays?
Their best option is to see if Upton is ready in spring training; his bat is already there, but if necessary they can farm him out to work on his fielding. Either way, at that point Lugo has to play. When Upton settles into the shortstop job, Lugo becomes a valuable player in trade. Gonzalez need not fit in the equation.
One Way to Avoid Wood-Chipping Young Arms: Lou Piniella can have a positive effect on hitters, especially those with power potential who haven't hit their peak. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for young pitchers. So what's one way to solve the problem? Sign "proven veterans."
In the past month, Hideo Nomo and Denny Neagle have signed with the Devil Rays, and Casey Fossum has been acquired in trade. Normally, that would be underwhelming, but when the rest of the rotation is Scott Kazmir, Mark Hendrickson, Dewon Brazelton, Doug Waechter and Rob Bell, you need help. Let's look at what PECOTA expects in 2005:
Player G IP H HR BB SO ERA VORP
Fossum 25 125.1 130 17 48 106 4.72 13.6
Neagle 16 80.2 85 12 27 51 4.72 11.7
Nomo 22 103.2 105 17 48 72 4.86 12.7
Kazmir 19 98.0 85 13 53 85 4.51 15.5
Hendrickson 26 142.2 170 20 40 74 5.22 10.7
Brazelton 21 114.1 127 17 49 72 5.48 7.1
Waechter 21 74.1 78 14 37 46 5.84 2.6
Bell 20 98.0 108 14 34 56 5.01 9.8
Including Fossum and the incumbent five, that projects to a total VORP of 59.3. That's not a pretty pitching staff, and it's one badly in need of an ace. Kazmir is the best chance for that, but the most important thing for him at this point is surviving the injury nexus. His making it through 2005 healthy is more important than his mowing down the league. Putting things in perspective, in 1997, the Braves' rotation averaged better than the combined VORP projection for the 2005 Devil Rays. Each Braves starter was more effective individually than what we anticipate from the entire Devil Rays' staff.
Perhaps there is good reason to take flyers on Nomo and Neagle, after all--even if they're only short-term stopgaps.
Toronto Blue Jays
Reshaping the Infield: 2004 was not kind to the Blue Jays in general. One specific problem they had was an infield that was ineffective, whether it was due to injury, poor play or some combination thereof. Last year's totals, with Carlos Delgado, Orlando Hudson, Chris Gomez, Chris Woodward and Eric Hinske:
Player Pos Age AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
Delgado 1B 32 458 123 26 0 32 69 115 0 1 .269 .372 .535 41.4
Hudson 2B 26 489 132 32 7 12 51 98 7 3 .270 .341 .438 27.4
Gomez SS 33 341 96 11 1 3 28 41 3 2 .282 .337 .346 7.2
Woodward SS 28 213 50 13 4 1 14 46 1 2 .235 .283 .347 -2.6
Hinske 3B 26 570 140 23 3 15 54 109 12 8 .246 .313 .375 -2.2
The left side of the infield was brutal for the Jays last year. If only they had more players who could have "off" years like Delgado, the Jays would be just fine. Josh Phelps was the only player with more than 30 starts at DH, and he dragged his anchor to a .237/.296/.417 line with the Jays, good for a 2.3 VORP.
Let's take a look at this year's PECOTA projections, broken down similarly to the above 2004 list. In 2005, expect to see Eric Hinske, Hudson, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill and Corey Koskie. (Hill will start the season playing shortstop at Triple-A Syracuse, but may be in line for a position switch to third base or second base.) Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Crozier provide flexibility and may see DH time in place of Phelps and others:
Player Pos Age AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG VORP
Hinske 1B 27 450 117 26 2 17 52 94 9 4 .259 .338 .442 13.9
Hudson 2B 27 428 116 23 3 11 41 78 6 3 .271 .337 .416 17.6
Adams SS 24 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 14.1
Hill SS 23 267 71 14 1 5 26 39 1 1 .266 .340 .387 12.9
Koskie 3B 32 417 116 25 2 19 57 103 9 4 .278 .373 .487 29.9
Hillenbrand 3B 29 492 140 31 3 15 28 60 2 0 .284 .331 .452 13.0
Crozier 1B 26 236 63 13 1 11 30 65 3 1 .268 .355 .470 14.7
One positive in the Jays' lost season is that they get to replace largely ineffective DH time (soaked up mostly by Phelps last season) with one of their surplus hitters. Of course, when you lose Carlos Delgado--even in an off year--that's hard to replace any way you look at it.
There's upside and downside to the above lineup. The upside is more consistency and reliability. That's the downside, as well, unfortunately. There's not a championship-caliber player like Delgado on the list, and none are likely to have a monster .300/.420/.600 season in them like Delgado might (keep in mind Delgado could have that kind of season in Florida, and you wouldn't know it once the park effect hits him).
What does this mean? Mediocrity. The Jays aren't likely to be as bad as last year, but they're also not going to challenge the Yankees or Red Sox. Third or perhaps fourth place in the AL East seems all too likely in 2005. They've got spare parts to fill gaps, but the real value of those players may be in trade if one of them heats up. All of the above can't be played at the same time, so for now all they provide is potential and flexibility.
--David Kirsch
Thursday, February 10, 2005
BP on Rangers
Texas Rangers
Picking Pedro: The Rangers have languished for years with an ineffective starting pitching staff, although it has often looked worse than it is due to the park factors in Arlington. Texas fans have pined for a starter to set things right, and the team has delivered, with such contracts as the disaster lavished upon Chan Ho Park and the seemingly-endless number of stints that Kenny Rogers has spent with the club.
But this year. This year is different. This year the Rangers have brought on a pitcher who will strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters--Pedro Astacio.
When we last left Mr. Astacio, he was busy racking up a 10.38 ERA in 8 2/3 innings for the eventual World Champs in Boston last last season. That was his comeback from a June 2003 shoulder surgery.
PECOTA isn't optimistic, foretelling a 5.34 ERA and a 6.7 VORP for the 35-year-old Astacio. Even the most optmistic Rangers fan would have to be disapointed if this is the big move of the offseason--Pedro hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 1999, and even in his last full season, with the Mets in 2002, his 12-11 record was only good for an underwhelming 9.2 VORP, or just a shade under one win over replacement.
Of course, every inning that Astacio manages to throw is one fewer thrown by Park, so there is an upside.
No Way, Jose: This past Sunday, the New York Daily News published what it said were details from Jose Canseco's upcoming book, Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big. Given the current media climate around the issue of steroids, reaction was typically muted. Canseco, a man who might seem to be a little short on credibility, even forced the President of the United States to issue a denial, stating that, contrary to Canseco's claim, he wasn't aware of any steroid use during his tenure as the owner of the Rangers.
According to the Daily News, Canseco also claims in the book to have introduced the Rangers to steroids when he arrived in Texas in 1992, including his then-teammates Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Ivan Rodriguez. Is there any evidence in their performance?
Palmeiro:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
26 1991 .322 .389 .532
27 1992 .268 .352 .434
28 1993 .295 .371 .554
29 1994 .319 .392 .550
Rodriguez:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
19 1991 .264 .276 .354
20 1992 .260 .300 .360
21 1993 .273 .315 .412
22 1994 .298 .360 .488
Gonzalez:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
21 1991 .264 .321 .479
22 1992 .260 .304 .529
23 1993 .310 .368 .632
24 1994 .275 .330 .472
Eyeballing those numbers, there's nothing that stands out and screams, "He started juicing!" The only year that seems like a quantum leap is Juan Gone in 1993, but there is a steady build to that peak before the dropoff in 1994.
All three players have denied the reported allegations. We're into Will Carroll territory here, but it seems prudent to reinforce a couple of points. First, players are innocent until proven guilty. Secondly, for good or ill, steroids weren't against the rules of Major League Baseball during Canseco's career. And perhaps most importantly, there isn't any study out there that proves that steroids help players produce more offensively. That doesn't mean that steroids don't help; that means that we don't know that they do. We try to trade in data around here and not conjecture, and we're hoping that people who read Canseco's book will do the same.
Picking Pedro: The Rangers have languished for years with an ineffective starting pitching staff, although it has often looked worse than it is due to the park factors in Arlington. Texas fans have pined for a starter to set things right, and the team has delivered, with such contracts as the disaster lavished upon Chan Ho Park and the seemingly-endless number of stints that Kenny Rogers has spent with the club.
But this year. This year is different. This year the Rangers have brought on a pitcher who will strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters--Pedro Astacio.
When we last left Mr. Astacio, he was busy racking up a 10.38 ERA in 8 2/3 innings for the eventual World Champs in Boston last last season. That was his comeback from a June 2003 shoulder surgery.
PECOTA isn't optimistic, foretelling a 5.34 ERA and a 6.7 VORP for the 35-year-old Astacio. Even the most optmistic Rangers fan would have to be disapointed if this is the big move of the offseason--Pedro hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 1999, and even in his last full season, with the Mets in 2002, his 12-11 record was only good for an underwhelming 9.2 VORP, or just a shade under one win over replacement.
Of course, every inning that Astacio manages to throw is one fewer thrown by Park, so there is an upside.
No Way, Jose: This past Sunday, the New York Daily News published what it said were details from Jose Canseco's upcoming book, Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big. Given the current media climate around the issue of steroids, reaction was typically muted. Canseco, a man who might seem to be a little short on credibility, even forced the President of the United States to issue a denial, stating that, contrary to Canseco's claim, he wasn't aware of any steroid use during his tenure as the owner of the Rangers.
According to the Daily News, Canseco also claims in the book to have introduced the Rangers to steroids when he arrived in Texas in 1992, including his then-teammates Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Ivan Rodriguez. Is there any evidence in their performance?
Palmeiro:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
26 1991 .322 .389 .532
27 1992 .268 .352 .434
28 1993 .295 .371 .554
29 1994 .319 .392 .550
Rodriguez:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
19 1991 .264 .276 .354
20 1992 .260 .300 .360
21 1993 .273 .315 .412
22 1994 .298 .360 .488
Gonzalez:
AGE YEAR BA OBP SLG
21 1991 .264 .321 .479
22 1992 .260 .304 .529
23 1993 .310 .368 .632
24 1994 .275 .330 .472
Eyeballing those numbers, there's nothing that stands out and screams, "He started juicing!" The only year that seems like a quantum leap is Juan Gone in 1993, but there is a steady build to that peak before the dropoff in 1994.
All three players have denied the reported allegations. We're into Will Carroll territory here, but it seems prudent to reinforce a couple of points. First, players are innocent until proven guilty. Secondly, for good or ill, steroids weren't against the rules of Major League Baseball during Canseco's career. And perhaps most importantly, there isn't any study out there that proves that steroids help players produce more offensively. That doesn't mean that steroids don't help; that means that we don't know that they do. We try to trade in data around here and not conjecture, and we're hoping that people who read Canseco's book will do the same.
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
JUICING THE BALL GAME
I'm well aware that this premise has been beaten to death by everything from Mad magazine to Letterman's Top Ten List, but the fact is that the so-called National Pastime continues to threaten to become the National Naptime. Major league baseball has become a kind of Nytol with box scores. That's one of the reasons for the emergence and spread of Fantasy Leagues: to create some contrived reason for us to take interest in a game that increasingly fails to hold our attention on its own merits. With that in mind, it is, once again, time to offer up some innovations that will get fans, and even non-fans, really watching the games again.
--After each home run, all the players on the batter's team, including the batter, must do tequila shots--the hefty two-ouncers.
--If a pitched ball hits the batter, before proceeding to first base the batter gets one free throw of the ball, from a distance of fifty feet, back at the pitcher.
--Any woman who successfully streaks topless completely across the outfield wins a season ticket.
--Replace the tedious seventh inning stretch with a public burning of George Steinbrenner in effigy.
--Instead of uniform numbers, put the players' salaries on the back of the uniforms, to aid the fans in assessing, and loudly commenting on, various players' actual value.
--One in every hundred game balls, inserted at random and unmarked, is chemically rigged to explode upon impact.
--If any pitcher blows a lead of five or more runs, the game will be halted while the pitcher is taken to a "hot seat" near the dugout and subjected to a massive electric shock.
--All outfielders will be required to play their position on Segway transporters.
--During the "dead time" while relievers take warmup pitches, liven things up with Alarmingly Obese Umpire Wind Sprints.
--Four words: Randy Johnson on crack.
Any further suggestions will be most welcome.
Monday, January 31, 2005
Friday, January 28, 2005
BP on Tigers and Royals
Detroit Tigers
Fun With Park Factors: After five years, it's time to check in on how Comerica Park is shaping up as a run environment.
Year Hitting/Pitching
2000 97/97
2001 99/99
2002 93/94
2003 95/95
2004 96/97
100=neutral. Higher numbers favor offense, lower defense.
The Tigers moved the left-center field fence in from 395 to 370 feet after the 2002 season, cutting down on the enormous power alley that Juan Gonzalez complained about during his time with Detroit in 2000. Whether or not Comerica's spacious outfield would have really driven away free-agent hitters is unknown, though Gonzalez's public whining probably did plant some doubts in numbers-conscious sluggers. The Tigers appear to have gotten lucky--they moved the fence in, eliminating any talk that their park was too extreme, but that move has not seriously affected Comerica playing as a good pitchers' park. Detroit needs to recognize this fact and ensure they have the appropriate speed in the outfield to capitalize on Comerica's tendency to depress home runs (0.871 in 2004) and inflate triples (1.844, the highest factor for three-base hits of any park).
Out of the Frying Pan: There were a lot of reasons to believe Jeremy Bonderman was being set up for failure by the Detroit Tigers. He was drafted in the first round out of high school (by the Athletics, of all teams, before being traded to Detroit), a serious risk factor in the development of young pitchers. He spent just one season in A ball before breaking camp with the Tigers in 2003. He endured a brutal first major-league season with Detroit, losing 19 games for a Tigers team that dropped a franchise-record 119. Because of all that, it's easy to forget that Bonderman is still just 22 years old, and to overlook the real strides he has made in his performance:
Year GS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA
2003 28 162 10.7 3.2 6.0 5.56
2004 32 184 8.2 3.6 8.2 4.89
Like many young pitchers, Bonderman needs to cut down on his walk rate to take the next step. He has shown an ability able to improve at the major-league level, though, and he appears ready to assume the mantle of staff ace. Fears that he has been overworked so early in his career seem unfounded. Despite the high total of innings he has racked up, manager Alan Trammell has kept him from having a single start above 121 pitches in his young career, and Bonderman has had a low stress rating in both of his first two years. Bonderman only got stronger down the stretch in 2004, as he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 batting average allowed after the All-Star break.
That Bonderman has largely overcome the hurdle doesn't excuse the Tigers' handling of their young ace. As pointed out in Baseball Prospectus 2004, Detroit's decision to rush him to The Show will prove costly in the long-term, as Bonderman has now racked up two years of major-league service time, and will hit free agency that much sooner. Clearly, having Bonderman as an "indentured servant" during his peak years instead of his developmental phase would have been better for Detroit. The Tigers are a team that can't afford to shell out huge dollars to keep all of its homegrown talent, and so don't have the luxury to make such a mistake.
Fifth with a Bullet: One wouldn't expect the fifth slot in the Tigers rotation to generate much intrigue. However, this year's back-end starter, Wilfredo Ledezma, has perhaps as much promise as any member of the pitching staff. Ledezma was a Rule 5 pick by the Tigers two years ago, nabbed from the Red Sox organization. He understandably struggled in 2003 after jumping from the South Atlantic League (A) to the majors, posting a 5.79 ERA in 84 innings for the Tigers, mostly out of the bullpen. Last season, Ledezma was able to head back to Double-A for much-needed seasoning, and he had a fine half-year in his age-23 season at hitter-friendly Erie, striking out 98 and walking just 24 in 111 2/3 innings.
Ledezma was recalled to Detroit on July 11, and pitched well enough for the Tigers (4.39 ERA, 29 K, 18 BB in 53 1/3 IP) to generate excitement about his future with the team. If Ledezma can build on the improvement he made last season, he could quickly team with Bonderman to provide a young, electric one-two punch at the top of the Detroit rotation.
Kansas City Royals
More Fun With Park Factors: In 1995, Kauffman Stadium underwent a renovation that saw the fences in the alleys moved in from 385 to 375 feet, the fence in center moved from 410 to 400 feet, and the fence height reduced from 12 to nine feet. Ever since then, Kauffman had played as an extremely healthy hitters' park. From 1995-2003, Kauffman averaged a park factor of 106 for batters and pitchers, a trend that grew from 2001-2003, when the park factor jumped to 113 for batters and 112 for pitchers. Kauffman's numbers over that three year span were frighteningly offensive-by contrast, Coors Field only played as a 112/111 during 2003.
Sensing that the rate of offense was getting out of hand, the Royals decided to move the fences back to their original positions of 385 feet in the alleys and 410 in center before the 2004 season. In doing so, they bucked the recent trend of moving fences in to exaggerate offense in the hopes of drawing more fans, a tactic taken most recently by the Tigers and White Sox. The results of the Royals' move were drastic-the park factor fell to 95 for batters and 96 for pitchers last season. Kauffman depressed runs at a rate of 0.910, rating it as the seventh best pitcher's park in baseball. It also had a park factor of 0.706 for home runs, ranking it as the second hardest stadium on homers behind Petco Park.
In the modern age of offense, the Royals decision to return to traditional stadium dimensions is an encouraging sign of sanity and foresight. In general, only two things increase attendance: winning and hosting quality opponents. Moving Kauffman's fences back won't hurt the Royals at the gate, and if it helps to move the organization more towards a commitment to developing quality young arms to benefit from the new dimensions, it could prove to be a major plus.
Calvinist Theology: One of the most interesting developments of last season was the play of Calvin Pickering, the much traveled, and monstrous (6'5, 278 lbs.), first basemen/DH. Pickering is something of an enigma; after having collected just 81 professional ABs from 2002-2003, Pickering caught on with Kansas City in '04 and absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League while at Omaha. In 299 at-bats, Pickering put up a Bondsian .712 slugging percentage by hitting 35 home runs, and then continued his barrage in Kansas City, hitting .246/.338/.500 with seven homers in 122 ABs. PECOTA thinks Pickering, who will still be just 28 in 2005, is for real. Here's his 2005 projection:
AB HR AVG OBP SLG VORP
337 24 .272 .400 .543 36.6
PECOTA tabs Pickering as the 2005 Royals' offensive MVP. It's doubtful that he will get enough at bats to claim that honor, however. Chronically injured Mike Sweeney, signed to a huge deal, is lodged in the DH slot, and the team is way too high on Ken Harvey at first base. Sweeney, an inferior defender, has been making things difficult for Royals' management recently, demanding that he play first base regularly or be dealt. The situation could be a blessing in disguise for Kansas City, however, for the team would be better off trading Sweeney for a few prospects and playing Pickering everyday at DH.
That would also solve the problem of finding an expendable member of Kansas City management to break the news to Pickering that he is still without a starting job. Our suggestion? Humor Calvin by offering him exclusive first dibs to all 2005 post-game spreads.
Fun With Park Factors: After five years, it's time to check in on how Comerica Park is shaping up as a run environment.
Year Hitting/Pitching
2000 97/97
2001 99/99
2002 93/94
2003 95/95
2004 96/97
100=neutral. Higher numbers favor offense, lower defense.
The Tigers moved the left-center field fence in from 395 to 370 feet after the 2002 season, cutting down on the enormous power alley that Juan Gonzalez complained about during his time with Detroit in 2000. Whether or not Comerica's spacious outfield would have really driven away free-agent hitters is unknown, though Gonzalez's public whining probably did plant some doubts in numbers-conscious sluggers. The Tigers appear to have gotten lucky--they moved the fence in, eliminating any talk that their park was too extreme, but that move has not seriously affected Comerica playing as a good pitchers' park. Detroit needs to recognize this fact and ensure they have the appropriate speed in the outfield to capitalize on Comerica's tendency to depress home runs (0.871 in 2004) and inflate triples (1.844, the highest factor for three-base hits of any park).
Out of the Frying Pan: There were a lot of reasons to believe Jeremy Bonderman was being set up for failure by the Detroit Tigers. He was drafted in the first round out of high school (by the Athletics, of all teams, before being traded to Detroit), a serious risk factor in the development of young pitchers. He spent just one season in A ball before breaking camp with the Tigers in 2003. He endured a brutal first major-league season with Detroit, losing 19 games for a Tigers team that dropped a franchise-record 119. Because of all that, it's easy to forget that Bonderman is still just 22 years old, and to overlook the real strides he has made in his performance:
Year GS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA
2003 28 162 10.7 3.2 6.0 5.56
2004 32 184 8.2 3.6 8.2 4.89
Like many young pitchers, Bonderman needs to cut down on his walk rate to take the next step. He has shown an ability able to improve at the major-league level, though, and he appears ready to assume the mantle of staff ace. Fears that he has been overworked so early in his career seem unfounded. Despite the high total of innings he has racked up, manager Alan Trammell has kept him from having a single start above 121 pitches in his young career, and Bonderman has had a low stress rating in both of his first two years. Bonderman only got stronger down the stretch in 2004, as he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 batting average allowed after the All-Star break.
That Bonderman has largely overcome the hurdle doesn't excuse the Tigers' handling of their young ace. As pointed out in Baseball Prospectus 2004, Detroit's decision to rush him to The Show will prove costly in the long-term, as Bonderman has now racked up two years of major-league service time, and will hit free agency that much sooner. Clearly, having Bonderman as an "indentured servant" during his peak years instead of his developmental phase would have been better for Detroit. The Tigers are a team that can't afford to shell out huge dollars to keep all of its homegrown talent, and so don't have the luxury to make such a mistake.
Fifth with a Bullet: One wouldn't expect the fifth slot in the Tigers rotation to generate much intrigue. However, this year's back-end starter, Wilfredo Ledezma, has perhaps as much promise as any member of the pitching staff. Ledezma was a Rule 5 pick by the Tigers two years ago, nabbed from the Red Sox organization. He understandably struggled in 2003 after jumping from the South Atlantic League (A) to the majors, posting a 5.79 ERA in 84 innings for the Tigers, mostly out of the bullpen. Last season, Ledezma was able to head back to Double-A for much-needed seasoning, and he had a fine half-year in his age-23 season at hitter-friendly Erie, striking out 98 and walking just 24 in 111 2/3 innings.
Ledezma was recalled to Detroit on July 11, and pitched well enough for the Tigers (4.39 ERA, 29 K, 18 BB in 53 1/3 IP) to generate excitement about his future with the team. If Ledezma can build on the improvement he made last season, he could quickly team with Bonderman to provide a young, electric one-two punch at the top of the Detroit rotation.
Kansas City Royals
More Fun With Park Factors: In 1995, Kauffman Stadium underwent a renovation that saw the fences in the alleys moved in from 385 to 375 feet, the fence in center moved from 410 to 400 feet, and the fence height reduced from 12 to nine feet. Ever since then, Kauffman had played as an extremely healthy hitters' park. From 1995-2003, Kauffman averaged a park factor of 106 for batters and pitchers, a trend that grew from 2001-2003, when the park factor jumped to 113 for batters and 112 for pitchers. Kauffman's numbers over that three year span were frighteningly offensive-by contrast, Coors Field only played as a 112/111 during 2003.
Sensing that the rate of offense was getting out of hand, the Royals decided to move the fences back to their original positions of 385 feet in the alleys and 410 in center before the 2004 season. In doing so, they bucked the recent trend of moving fences in to exaggerate offense in the hopes of drawing more fans, a tactic taken most recently by the Tigers and White Sox. The results of the Royals' move were drastic-the park factor fell to 95 for batters and 96 for pitchers last season. Kauffman depressed runs at a rate of 0.910, rating it as the seventh best pitcher's park in baseball. It also had a park factor of 0.706 for home runs, ranking it as the second hardest stadium on homers behind Petco Park.
In the modern age of offense, the Royals decision to return to traditional stadium dimensions is an encouraging sign of sanity and foresight. In general, only two things increase attendance: winning and hosting quality opponents. Moving Kauffman's fences back won't hurt the Royals at the gate, and if it helps to move the organization more towards a commitment to developing quality young arms to benefit from the new dimensions, it could prove to be a major plus.
Calvinist Theology: One of the most interesting developments of last season was the play of Calvin Pickering, the much traveled, and monstrous (6'5, 278 lbs.), first basemen/DH. Pickering is something of an enigma; after having collected just 81 professional ABs from 2002-2003, Pickering caught on with Kansas City in '04 and absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League while at Omaha. In 299 at-bats, Pickering put up a Bondsian .712 slugging percentage by hitting 35 home runs, and then continued his barrage in Kansas City, hitting .246/.338/.500 with seven homers in 122 ABs. PECOTA thinks Pickering, who will still be just 28 in 2005, is for real. Here's his 2005 projection:
AB HR AVG OBP SLG VORP
337 24 .272 .400 .543 36.6
PECOTA tabs Pickering as the 2005 Royals' offensive MVP. It's doubtful that he will get enough at bats to claim that honor, however. Chronically injured Mike Sweeney, signed to a huge deal, is lodged in the DH slot, and the team is way too high on Ken Harvey at first base. Sweeney, an inferior defender, has been making things difficult for Royals' management recently, demanding that he play first base regularly or be dealt. The situation could be a blessing in disguise for Kansas City, however, for the team would be better off trading Sweeney for a few prospects and playing Pickering everyday at DH.
That would also solve the problem of finding an expendable member of Kansas City management to break the news to Pickering that he is still without a starting job. Our suggestion? Humor Calvin by offering him exclusive first dibs to all 2005 post-game spreads.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
BP on Angels
Anaheim Angels
Against the Grain: As Joe Sheehan noted last week, there is often a disproportionate difference in salary between comparable players eligible for free agency and those eligible only for arbitration. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim however, are becoming a bit of a maverick and free agency seems no different.
Paul Byrd was signed as a free agent to a one-year, $5 million deal back in December, while arbitration eligible Jarrod Washburn reached an one-year accord worth $6.5 million. The two make for an interesting comparison in that their three-year translated averages are similar:
Byrd K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2001 3.94 1.93 2.04 0.89 9.45
2002 4.48 1.15 3.91 1.11 7.18
2004 5.29 1.17 4.53 1.17 8.66
AVG 4.56 1.34 3.42 1.08 8.08
Washburn K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2002 5.65 2.32 2.44 0.82 8.11
2003 4.81 2.25 2.14 1.22 7.60
2004 4.67 2.11 2.21 1.00 8.48
AVG 5.08 2.24 2.27 1.02 8.03
While neither pitcher has a great line, Byrd has made a strong case for being the better of the two over the past three years in which he has pitched. As his strikeout and walk rates have improved. Byrd's HR rate has increased, but Angel Stadium played better for home runs than did Turner Field in 2004, so there is reason to believe that will change. Meanwhile, it seems the Angels are still paying for Washburn's 2002 season. The left-hander has dropped almost a whole strikeout per nine innings in the last three years and though his walks have also decreased, it is not enough to make up for a drop in his K/BB ratio, where Byrd is clearly superior. Still, PECOTA rates them about the same, with a 17.7 VORP forecast for Byrd versus 18.1 for Washburn.
PECOTA also shows Byrd as having a wider range of possible performances, an implicit acknowledgement of his missed time over the past two years. Keep in mind that Byrd didn't miss a start after returning from Tommy John surgery, and the track record has been good for Tommy John survivors of late. Byrd's metrics indicate he has a good chance to beat his PECOTA projection.
Oh Kendry! The Angels signed Cuban defector Kendry Morales to a six-year contract in early December. Scouting Director Eddie Bane has been on record saying that Morales is ready for prime time. Unfortunately, the Angels have nowhere to put him. The Angels have committed to Dallas McPherson at third base and Darin Erstad just won a Gold Glove at first base. Casey Kotchman seems to have the inside track at designated hitter. The outfield is just as crowded with Garret Anderson, Steve Finley and Vladimir Guerrero, to say nothing of Juan Rivera and Jeff DaVanon.
So where does this leave the Angels? It probably gives them a good excuse to send Morales to the minors. As an article in Baseball Prospectus 2005 will cover, Cuban baseball seems comparable to the Carolina League, so this does not seem unreasonable. However, based on the track record of disappointing Cuban hitters, there's a significant risk that Morales' six-year contract will become an albatross.
Against the Grain: As Joe Sheehan noted last week, there is often a disproportionate difference in salary between comparable players eligible for free agency and those eligible only for arbitration. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim however, are becoming a bit of a maverick and free agency seems no different.
Paul Byrd was signed as a free agent to a one-year, $5 million deal back in December, while arbitration eligible Jarrod Washburn reached an one-year accord worth $6.5 million. The two make for an interesting comparison in that their three-year translated averages are similar:
Byrd K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2001 3.94 1.93 2.04 0.89 9.45
2002 4.48 1.15 3.91 1.11 7.18
2004 5.29 1.17 4.53 1.17 8.66
AVG 4.56 1.34 3.42 1.08 8.08
Washburn K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 H/9
2002 5.65 2.32 2.44 0.82 8.11
2003 4.81 2.25 2.14 1.22 7.60
2004 4.67 2.11 2.21 1.00 8.48
AVG 5.08 2.24 2.27 1.02 8.03
While neither pitcher has a great line, Byrd has made a strong case for being the better of the two over the past three years in which he has pitched. As his strikeout and walk rates have improved. Byrd's HR rate has increased, but Angel Stadium played better for home runs than did Turner Field in 2004, so there is reason to believe that will change. Meanwhile, it seems the Angels are still paying for Washburn's 2002 season. The left-hander has dropped almost a whole strikeout per nine innings in the last three years and though his walks have also decreased, it is not enough to make up for a drop in his K/BB ratio, where Byrd is clearly superior. Still, PECOTA rates them about the same, with a 17.7 VORP forecast for Byrd versus 18.1 for Washburn.
PECOTA also shows Byrd as having a wider range of possible performances, an implicit acknowledgement of his missed time over the past two years. Keep in mind that Byrd didn't miss a start after returning from Tommy John surgery, and the track record has been good for Tommy John survivors of late. Byrd's metrics indicate he has a good chance to beat his PECOTA projection.
Oh Kendry! The Angels signed Cuban defector Kendry Morales to a six-year contract in early December. Scouting Director Eddie Bane has been on record saying that Morales is ready for prime time. Unfortunately, the Angels have nowhere to put him. The Angels have committed to Dallas McPherson at third base and Darin Erstad just won a Gold Glove at first base. Casey Kotchman seems to have the inside track at designated hitter. The outfield is just as crowded with Garret Anderson, Steve Finley and Vladimir Guerrero, to say nothing of Juan Rivera and Jeff DaVanon.
So where does this leave the Angels? It probably gives them a good excuse to send Morales to the minors. As an article in Baseball Prospectus 2005 will cover, Cuban baseball seems comparable to the Carolina League, so this does not seem unreasonable. However, based on the track record of disappointing Cuban hitters, there's a significant risk that Morales' six-year contract will become an albatross.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
Words of Wisdom
Remember, there are no losers, only people whose best just isn't good enough - T.Bogg
Monday, January 17, 2005
BP on Rays, Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
New Life for Faded Prospects?: It wasn't that long ago that Josh Phelps graced our cover. (The 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus, in case you're wondering.) He had mashed his way into our hearts, but the league caught up with him. Similarly, Brandon Larson seemed to have a world of hope a couple years ago with the Cincinnati Reds.
Of all teams, curiously the Devil Rays have made a couple of low-risk signings that may pay off in spades. In addition, they may have the right manager to turn them around. For all his faults, Lou Piniella has done the most good with hitters, especially power hitters who haven't quite hit their stride. Chris Sabo, Bret Boone, Mike Pagliarulo, Paul Sorrento and Jay Buhner all seemed to have been positively influenced by Piniella.
Let's look at Larson first. He's continued to mash in Triple-A (OPSes of 1060, 1001 and 871) the last three seasons. PECOTA likes him, but that hasn't yet translated into results in the majors. The risk is that Larson gets labeled a Quadruple-A player and follows the Russ Branyan career path, or worse. Some of his woes may be explained away by nagging injuries; at this point, Larson's window of opportunity is closing. Let's look at his PECOTA projected numbers versus actuals since 2003:
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 248 62 13 1 12 19 68 2 2 .251 .310 .456 766 14.6
2003 ActCIN 32 89 9 1 0 1 13 31 2 2 .101 .212 .146 358 -11.9
2004 PECOTA 265 68 15 1 14 25 67 3 1 .257 .325 .474 799 16.5
2004 ActCIN 40 118 25 6 0 3 14 35 1 0 .212 .304 .339 643 -1.1
2005 PECOTA 262 68 13 1 15 25 78 2 0 .258 .326 .481 807 11.6
Larson has been a huge underachiever to date, and as such is a solid low-risk proposition by the Devil Rays. If he doesn't work, he can be cast aside without losing much. If he does work out, they've found a nice power hitter for little investment. He's not likely to be with the Devil Rays the next time (if ever?) they win anything, but he could certainly make for some nice swag at the trading deadline.
Now, on to Phelps. Poster boy in 2003, only to be moved in 2004 for a potentially useful career minor leaguer in Eric Crozier. Crozier's PECOTA projection is for a VORP of 14.7 in 236 at bats in 2005.
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 393 100 23 1 25 42 120 2 2 .255 .334 .508 842 30.6
2003 ActTOR 119 396 106 18 1 20 39 115 1 2 .268 .358 .470 828 23.7
2004 PECOTA 395 107 23 1 24 43 105 2 1 .272 .355 .520 875 27.4
2004 ActTOR 79 295 70 13 2 12 18 73 0 0 .237 .296 .417 713 2.3
2004 ActCLE 24 76 23 6 0 5 4 20 0 0 .303 .338 .579 917 7.5
2005 PECOTA 401 107 23 1 22 36 108 0 1 .267 .339 .495 834 26.3
It wouldn't be surprising to see Piniella and a change of scenery help Phelps turn it around and decimate that projection. Once again, the Devil Rays are in a position to take chances. Either one of these two may pay huge dividends.
Top 50 Prospects: Like the Braves, the Devil Rays have one of the candidates fror best prospect in the game.
Delmon Young. He didn't put up Bondsian numbers. He's still got a ways to go to get to the majors. That's the downside.
He was 18. There wasn't much he didn't do well. Hit for average, hit for power, drew some walks and stole some bases. Young has "hitter" written all over him, and he's likely to get better. What did he do last year, and what does PECOTA expect? Let's look:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 A- 131 513 164 26 5 25 53 120 21 6 .320 .386 .536 922
2005 PECOTA 408 106 20 4 12 33 105 8 3 .259 .321 .417 738 10.9
Young may still be a long way from the majors, but a 19-year-old who looks like he could hold his own in the major leagues is special. Ask Ivan Rodriguez. Or Alex Rodriguez. Or the Devil Rays' own B.J. Upton. We still don't know what he'll become as a hitter; for now, there isn't much in the way of limits.
Jonny Gomes. PECOTA wonderboy? Wily Mo Pena was both the subject of ridicule and, eventually, astonishment when PECOTA pegged him for a big year in 2004. Gomes might be this year's version? To be fair, Gomes doesn't have the age advantage of Pena, and he's not highly regarded by scouts for his tools. He's 24 (won't turn 25 until next November), so it's not like he's young enough to have the upside of Young or Upton.
What Gomes has, however, is the ability to hit. Although he's perhaps a little old for a prospect, anyone who's slugged .526 through their minor-league career has merit. Below are his career numbers along with his 2005 PECOTA projection.
Year TM LG Ag Lvl AVG G AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO OBP SLG OPS
2001 PRI App 20 Roo .291 62 206 60 11 2 16 15 4 33 73 .389 .597 986
2002 BAK CAL 21 A .276 133 446 123 24 9 30 15 3 91 173 .431 .572 1003
2003 ORL SOU 22 AA .249 120 442 110 28 3 17 23 2 53 148 .348 .441 789
2004 DUR INT 23 AAA .256 114 390 100 27 1 26 8 5 51 136 .368 .531 899
2005 TB AL 24 MLB .265 272 72 15 2 14 5 2 34 88 .366 .491 857
With Rocco Baldelli out with a torn ACL, Gomes should get some playing time. That doesn't mean he will. The latest word is that Joey Gathright is going to get time in Baldelli's absence. Putting things in perspective, Gathright's projection of -4.5 VORP is the worst among the Devil Rays, below such luminaries as Brook Fordyce and Rey Sanchez. As fast as Gathright may be, as the old cliché goes, you can't steal first base. Gathright's PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2005 PECOTA 338 85 12 3 1 23 67 23 7 .252 .311 .310 621 -4.5
If the choice is between Joey Gathright and Jonny Gomes, it's not a tough one.
Toronto Blue Jays
Anti-Moneyball? Just when you had J.P. Ricciardi pegged as a Billy Beane disciple, he throws a wrench in the works. Come to think of it, Beane's done that himself this offseason, so perhaps J.P.'s following suit. The similarity ends there, though. Beane realized he needed to retool and decisively made moves to try to inject fresh blood into the A's, all while leaving them options for the future. Ricciardi's latest moves seem like something intended to plug holes in the dam until better options are available.
In the past month, the Jays have gone out and gotten Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis and Billy Koch. Koch comes back to the Jays in a low-risk, low-cost deal; if he finds himself again, he could certainly be nice bait for a mid-season deal. Schoeneweis is a bit more confusing, as he's had one semi-useful campaign in relief.
Let's look at the recent position player acquisitions within the context of dollars per anticipated win (salary divided by projected Wins Above Replacement, in millions).
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Koskie 417 2.8 29.9 3,500,000* $1.25
Hillenbrand 492 1.2 13.0 4,000,000** $3.33
Crozier 236 New 14.7 300,000 $0.20
.. and a couple others for comparison:
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Eric Hinske 450 3.0 13.9 3,000,000 $1.00
Aubrey Huff 534 2.4 40.0 4,500,000 $1.88
* includes pro-rated signing bonus
** high-end estimate at arbitration; 2004
WARP numbers are projected from 2004 PECOTA projection
It's hard to justify the Hillenbrand acquisition, although there are some mitigating factors. He didn't cost a lot in terms of talent--C pitching prospect Adam Peterson--and the Jays seemed to have some money to spend this season. He's not a financial albatross, and can be traded or cut loose fairly readily. There wasn't much left on the market in the way of right-handed power or first basemen. If he puts up good raw numbers, he could be flipped for something useful when a desperate team comes calling mid-season.
The Koskie signing looks like a good value proposition, at least in comparison to the players above. Unfortunately, he's going to be blocking Aaron Hill by the end of this year, and at 32, it's not likely that he'll be revisiting his 2000-03 peak. Expect Koskie to take over third base while Hinske moves across the diamond to first base, with a plethora of options having Hillenbrand and Crozier around. They're certainly covered at third base if anyone gets hurt, having just about cornered the mid-market third basemen.
Top 50 Prospects: The Jays have a deep farm system, but lack the top-tier guy the Devil Rays and Braves each have.
Guillermo Quiroz. 2004 was a tough year for Quiroz. He had all the luster and sheen of a top catching prospect, and a nagging hand injury derailed his season. There's still plenty of opportunity, but he'll wind up moving downward in our prospect list until he can establish that he's healthy and the lost season hasn't derailed his development. His 2004 numbers along with his PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 76 255 58 19 1 8 28 54 0 0 .227 .309 .404 713
2004 TOR 17 52 11 2 0 0 2 8 1 0 .212 .250 .263 513
2005 PECOTA 291 74 16 1 12 26 68 0 1 .254 .326 .441 767 13.9
Quiroz still projects quite well, albeit in limited playing time. His catching skills are still well regarded; if he continues to build on those and his peripheral batting skills, he won't have to hit for a high average to be valuable. If he does, it'll be gravy. Expect Quiroz to be middle to back of the pack in our Top 50 Prospects list. If he returns healthy and continues to develop, he'll be far more valuable than that.
Russ Adams. Adams is a more difficult story. He looks like he'll be a useful player for a few years, with little or no star potential. The Jays can plug him in, have an affordable shortstop (or second baseman) for a few years, then shift to a utility or backup role. He did have a nice cup of coffee in 2004, but he'll have to keep that up much longer to convince us this is a real change and not sample size variation.
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 122 483 139 37 3 5 45 62 6 2 .288 .351 .408 759
2004 TOR 22 72 22 2 1 4 5 5 1 0 .306 .359 .526 887
2005 PECOTA 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 734 14.1
Adams is likely to have a few productive years, then become a utility player or part-timer. Look for him to get an honorable mention in our Top 50 Prospects list.
New Life for Faded Prospects?: It wasn't that long ago that Josh Phelps graced our cover. (The 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus, in case you're wondering.) He had mashed his way into our hearts, but the league caught up with him. Similarly, Brandon Larson seemed to have a world of hope a couple years ago with the Cincinnati Reds.
Of all teams, curiously the Devil Rays have made a couple of low-risk signings that may pay off in spades. In addition, they may have the right manager to turn them around. For all his faults, Lou Piniella has done the most good with hitters, especially power hitters who haven't quite hit their stride. Chris Sabo, Bret Boone, Mike Pagliarulo, Paul Sorrento and Jay Buhner all seemed to have been positively influenced by Piniella.
Let's look at Larson first. He's continued to mash in Triple-A (OPSes of 1060, 1001 and 871) the last three seasons. PECOTA likes him, but that hasn't yet translated into results in the majors. The risk is that Larson gets labeled a Quadruple-A player and follows the Russ Branyan career path, or worse. Some of his woes may be explained away by nagging injuries; at this point, Larson's window of opportunity is closing. Let's look at his PECOTA projected numbers versus actuals since 2003:
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 248 62 13 1 12 19 68 2 2 .251 .310 .456 766 14.6
2003 ActCIN 32 89 9 1 0 1 13 31 2 2 .101 .212 .146 358 -11.9
2004 PECOTA 265 68 15 1 14 25 67 3 1 .257 .325 .474 799 16.5
2004 ActCIN 40 118 25 6 0 3 14 35 1 0 .212 .304 .339 643 -1.1
2005 PECOTA 262 68 13 1 15 25 78 2 0 .258 .326 .481 807 11.6
Larson has been a huge underachiever to date, and as such is a solid low-risk proposition by the Devil Rays. If he doesn't work, he can be cast aside without losing much. If he does work out, they've found a nice power hitter for little investment. He's not likely to be with the Devil Rays the next time (if ever?) they win anything, but he could certainly make for some nice swag at the trading deadline.
Now, on to Phelps. Poster boy in 2003, only to be moved in 2004 for a potentially useful career minor leaguer in Eric Crozier. Crozier's PECOTA projection is for a VORP of 14.7 in 236 at bats in 2005.
Year G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2003 PECOTA 393 100 23 1 25 42 120 2 2 .255 .334 .508 842 30.6
2003 ActTOR 119 396 106 18 1 20 39 115 1 2 .268 .358 .470 828 23.7
2004 PECOTA 395 107 23 1 24 43 105 2 1 .272 .355 .520 875 27.4
2004 ActTOR 79 295 70 13 2 12 18 73 0 0 .237 .296 .417 713 2.3
2004 ActCLE 24 76 23 6 0 5 4 20 0 0 .303 .338 .579 917 7.5
2005 PECOTA 401 107 23 1 22 36 108 0 1 .267 .339 .495 834 26.3
It wouldn't be surprising to see Piniella and a change of scenery help Phelps turn it around and decimate that projection. Once again, the Devil Rays are in a position to take chances. Either one of these two may pay huge dividends.
Top 50 Prospects: Like the Braves, the Devil Rays have one of the candidates fror best prospect in the game.
Delmon Young. He didn't put up Bondsian numbers. He's still got a ways to go to get to the majors. That's the downside.
He was 18. There wasn't much he didn't do well. Hit for average, hit for power, drew some walks and stole some bases. Young has "hitter" written all over him, and he's likely to get better. What did he do last year, and what does PECOTA expect? Let's look:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 A- 131 513 164 26 5 25 53 120 21 6 .320 .386 .536 922
2005 PECOTA 408 106 20 4 12 33 105 8 3 .259 .321 .417 738 10.9
Young may still be a long way from the majors, but a 19-year-old who looks like he could hold his own in the major leagues is special. Ask Ivan Rodriguez. Or Alex Rodriguez. Or the Devil Rays' own B.J. Upton. We still don't know what he'll become as a hitter; for now, there isn't much in the way of limits.
Jonny Gomes. PECOTA wonderboy? Wily Mo Pena was both the subject of ridicule and, eventually, astonishment when PECOTA pegged him for a big year in 2004. Gomes might be this year's version? To be fair, Gomes doesn't have the age advantage of Pena, and he's not highly regarded by scouts for his tools. He's 24 (won't turn 25 until next November), so it's not like he's young enough to have the upside of Young or Upton.
What Gomes has, however, is the ability to hit. Although he's perhaps a little old for a prospect, anyone who's slugged .526 through their minor-league career has merit. Below are his career numbers along with his 2005 PECOTA projection.
Year TM LG Ag Lvl AVG G AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO OBP SLG OPS
2001 PRI App 20 Roo .291 62 206 60 11 2 16 15 4 33 73 .389 .597 986
2002 BAK CAL 21 A .276 133 446 123 24 9 30 15 3 91 173 .431 .572 1003
2003 ORL SOU 22 AA .249 120 442 110 28 3 17 23 2 53 148 .348 .441 789
2004 DUR INT 23 AAA .256 114 390 100 27 1 26 8 5 51 136 .368 .531 899
2005 TB AL 24 MLB .265 272 72 15 2 14 5 2 34 88 .366 .491 857
With Rocco Baldelli out with a torn ACL, Gomes should get some playing time. That doesn't mean he will. The latest word is that Joey Gathright is going to get time in Baldelli's absence. Putting things in perspective, Gathright's projection of -4.5 VORP is the worst among the Devil Rays, below such luminaries as Brook Fordyce and Rey Sanchez. As fast as Gathright may be, as the old cliché goes, you can't steal first base. Gathright's PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2005 PECOTA 338 85 12 3 1 23 67 23 7 .252 .311 .310 621 -4.5
If the choice is between Joey Gathright and Jonny Gomes, it's not a tough one.
Toronto Blue Jays
Anti-Moneyball? Just when you had J.P. Ricciardi pegged as a Billy Beane disciple, he throws a wrench in the works. Come to think of it, Beane's done that himself this offseason, so perhaps J.P.'s following suit. The similarity ends there, though. Beane realized he needed to retool and decisively made moves to try to inject fresh blood into the A's, all while leaving them options for the future. Ricciardi's latest moves seem like something intended to plug holes in the dam until better options are available.
In the past month, the Jays have gone out and gotten Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis and Billy Koch. Koch comes back to the Jays in a low-risk, low-cost deal; if he finds himself again, he could certainly be nice bait for a mid-season deal. Schoeneweis is a bit more confusing, as he's had one semi-useful campaign in relief.
Let's look at the recent position player acquisitions within the context of dollars per anticipated win (salary divided by projected Wins Above Replacement, in millions).
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Koskie 417 2.8 29.9 3,500,000* $1.25
Hillenbrand 492 1.2 13.0 4,000,000** $3.33
Crozier 236 New 14.7 300,000 $0.20
.. and a couple others for comparison:
Player AB(est) WARP VORP(est) 2005 Salary $MM/Win
Eric Hinske 450 3.0 13.9 3,000,000 $1.00
Aubrey Huff 534 2.4 40.0 4,500,000 $1.88
* includes pro-rated signing bonus
** high-end estimate at arbitration; 2004
WARP numbers are projected from 2004 PECOTA projection
It's hard to justify the Hillenbrand acquisition, although there are some mitigating factors. He didn't cost a lot in terms of talent--C pitching prospect Adam Peterson--and the Jays seemed to have some money to spend this season. He's not a financial albatross, and can be traded or cut loose fairly readily. There wasn't much left on the market in the way of right-handed power or first basemen. If he puts up good raw numbers, he could be flipped for something useful when a desperate team comes calling mid-season.
The Koskie signing looks like a good value proposition, at least in comparison to the players above. Unfortunately, he's going to be blocking Aaron Hill by the end of this year, and at 32, it's not likely that he'll be revisiting his 2000-03 peak. Expect Koskie to take over third base while Hinske moves across the diamond to first base, with a plethora of options having Hillenbrand and Crozier around. They're certainly covered at third base if anyone gets hurt, having just about cornered the mid-market third basemen.
Top 50 Prospects: The Jays have a deep farm system, but lack the top-tier guy the Devil Rays and Braves each have.
Guillermo Quiroz. 2004 was a tough year for Quiroz. He had all the luster and sheen of a top catching prospect, and a nagging hand injury derailed his season. There's still plenty of opportunity, but he'll wind up moving downward in our prospect list until he can establish that he's healthy and the lost season hasn't derailed his development. His 2004 numbers along with his PECOTA projection:
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 76 255 58 19 1 8 28 54 0 0 .227 .309 .404 713
2004 TOR 17 52 11 2 0 0 2 8 1 0 .212 .250 .263 513
2005 PECOTA 291 74 16 1 12 26 68 0 1 .254 .326 .441 767 13.9
Quiroz still projects quite well, albeit in limited playing time. His catching skills are still well regarded; if he continues to build on those and his peripheral batting skills, he won't have to hit for a high average to be valuable. If he does, it'll be gravy. Expect Quiroz to be middle to back of the pack in our Top 50 Prospects list. If he returns healthy and continues to develop, he'll be far more valuable than that.
Russ Adams. Adams is a more difficult story. He looks like he'll be a useful player for a few years, with little or no star potential. The Jays can plug him in, have an affordable shortstop (or second baseman) for a few years, then shift to a utility or backup role. He did have a nice cup of coffee in 2004, but he'll have to keep that up much longer to convince us this is a real change and not sample size variation.
Year Lvl G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS VORP
2004 AAA 122 483 139 37 3 5 45 62 6 2 .288 .351 .408 759
2004 TOR 22 72 22 2 1 4 5 5 1 0 .306 .359 .526 887
2005 PECOTA 303 81 17 3 6 30 40 4 2 .268 .338 .396 734 14.1
Adams is likely to have a few productive years, then become a utility player or part-timer. Look for him to get an honorable mention in our Top 50 Prospects list.
Thursday, January 13, 2005
BP on White Sox, A's
Baseball Prospectus
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Chicago White Sox
Activity v. Progress: What had been a rather quiet offseason for the White Sox suddenly turned busy in the last month as GM Kenny Williams signed several players and made one big trade. The new cast, in order of appearance:
Dustin Hermanson, late the closer of the San Francisco Giants, was signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal, ostensibly to be the eighth-inning man. Hermanson enjoyed moderate success bouncing between the Giants’ pen and rotation for the last year and a half, posting translated ERAs much closer to his more respectable seasons in Montreal than his more recent efforts in Boston and St. Louis. While his ability to step into the rotation in case of injury is a nice bonus, that kind of versatility would have to come with some major perks to justify his contract. Plucking quality pitchers on the cheap to pitch in set-up roles is a skill not yet mastered in a lot of front offices. Considering the short length of Hermanson's contract and its relative size, signing him is not a bad move.
Oakland’s own Lemony Snicket, Jermaine Dye, was signed to a two-year, $10.15M contract to replace the departed (and not offered arbitration) Magglio Ordonez. Dye will be cheaper than Ordonez, but he won’t provide nearly the same offensive punch that Ordonez did until his lost 2004. He hasn’t approached his impressive performances of 1999-2001 since shattering his shin in the 2001 postseason, and has battled through several injuries in the years since then. If the Sox can keep him healthy, he has a chance to post respectable numbers; at an offensive position like right field, however, that would make him league-average at best.
Four days after signing Dye, the Sox shipped one of their best remaining hitters, Carlos Lee, to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and, eventually, prospect Travis Hinton. Perhaps Williams has switched allegiances from Oakland to the Brewers. After calling the White Sox’s third-leading runs scored total in 2004 "deceiving," the Sox declared themselves to be on the speed'n'defense track with this move, hoping to duplicate the success of the Rockies teams that implemented the same plan a few years ago.
There’s just one problem: unless Vizcaino is the best fielding pitcher in history, this trade only solves half that equation. Podsednik’s 2003 success at the plate was out of line with his previous performance record and he regressed badly from it in 2004. How he managed to steal 70 bases with a .313 OBP is beyond us, but that impressive total no doubt masked his below-average offense and defense. If the Sox were strapped for cash or got some decent prospects in return, moving Lee could be defensible. That’s not the case here.
After shipping Lee out of town, the Sox re-signed Juan Uribe to a three-year, $9.75MM deal, rewarding him for an impressive 2004 in which he became one of the first hitters to benefit from leaving Colorado. With the shortstop not eligible for free agency for a few more seasons, the White Sox would have been better off giving Uribe one more year to prove that 2004 wasn’t a fluke, but the faults in a deal of this size are minimal.
Having been unable to lure Randy Johnson to the South Side, just before Christmas the Sox settled for Orlando Hernandez on a two-year, $8MM contract. A suspect 35 years old, Hernandez has been effective when he's been available, and the length and cost of his contract fits in with the lower tier of starting pitchers this off-season. If El Duque can manage 150-175 innings of reasonable pitching in 2005, the deal will be a bargain. If he breaks down, the Sox haven’t lost much.
To complete the puzzle, and still seeking to emulate the Twins, the Sox picked up discarded catcher A.J. Pierzynski for one year and $2.25MM. Pierzynski struggled last year in San Francisco, both with the bat and with his teammates, but Ben Davis is not the answer at catcher for the Sox. Taking a shot on Pierzynski isn’t a bad idea, especially on a small contract like this one.
Oakland Athletics
Deal With It: The A’s did their Christmas shopping early this year, swapping out Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in a pair of mid-December trades, moves that have been analyzed more intensely than most bills in Congress. The deal that may have fallen through the cracks, coming just a day before the Hudson deal, was the swap of Justin Lehr and Nelson Cruz for Milwaukee second baseman Keith Ginter. In retrospect, the deal cleared the way for the Hudson trade that brought in Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas: Cruz neatly replaces Lehr in the pen while Thomas becomes the default option for a fourth outfielder.
The shakeup leaves as many questions as answers, the first of which is who will be playing second base when the season starts. While Mark Ellis looked to be in line for a return to the job he forfeited last year because of a bum shoulder, Ginter’s arrival signals a lack of faith on the A’s part that Ellis can perform well enough to hold down the regular job. Ellis’ 2003 was distinctly different than 2002 and previous seasons. His batting line (.248/.313/.371) regressed from his established levels from his minor-league career and rookie season, while his defense showed distinct improvement in his second year since moving over from shortstop. He looked in line for an offensive rebound in 2004, but with the year lost to injury, questions about his ability to hit are compounded by questions about health and how the injury will affect his play both in the box and on the field.
On the other hand, while Ginter has never been a superstar with the glove, totaling -13 FRAA over 2003-2004, his impressive power last year--19 home runs, .479 SLG--makes him a significant upgrade over Ellis with the bat. With extreme groundballers Mulder and Hudson now absent from the rotation, Ellis’ defense suddenly becomes less of an argument for playing him. If the A’s keep both players on the roster, they could conceivably be used in a bit of an offense/defense platoon with Ellis playing behind the more groundball-inclined pitchers (Rich Harden) while Ginter sees time when Barry Zito and other flyballers are on the mound. Realistically, the difference between the two is slight, leaving the job to go to the player who looks better in spring training.
The other big lineup question created by the trades is in the outfield. Until Thomas was acquired, the A’s appeared set with an Eric Byrnes/Mark Kotsay/Nick Swisher outfield. With Thomas aboard, rumors have begun that Byrnes--likely due a healthy raise in arbitration--is headed out of town to either Arizona or the New York Mets. Having shipped out two of their highest paid players, the A’s still have a good deal of room between their committed capital and their publicly stated payroll of $61.5MM. An extra $700,000 or so to Byrnes isn’t going to break the A’s bank and the difference between Byrnes and Thomas as an everyday player is significant.
Thomas has shown the A’s favorite skill, drawing walks, in spades in the low minors, but until he hit Double-A Greenville with Atlanta in late 2003, he had shown a complete absence of the ability to hit. Before his late season surge in 2003, Thomas had amassed a career .254 batting average in over 1000 ABs in the low minors. That’s a healthy sample size against a low quality of competition, justifying many of the concerns about a then 24-year-old in Single-A. Suddenly, however, Thomas started raking, hitting .343 in Double- and Triple-A before performing well (.288/.368/.445) in just over 200 ABs in Atlanta. With that improved BA, though, came a loss in his plate discipline; Thomas drew just 12 unintentional walks in more than 250 plate appearances with the Braves last season.
Like Thomas, Byrnes had one of his best years in 2004, hitting .283/.347/.467 in full-time action in left field. Despite his speed, his defense is still just average, but Thomas’ isn’t significantly better. With only the shell of Bobby Kielty left on the A’s outfield bench, shipping Byrnes out of town would leave the A’s significantly short-handed if injury strikes or rookie Swisher struggles. The small expense to keep Byrnes is both within the A’s budget and worth it for the risk it deters as well as the likely performance difference between Byrnes and Thomas.
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Chicago White Sox
Activity v. Progress: What had been a rather quiet offseason for the White Sox suddenly turned busy in the last month as GM Kenny Williams signed several players and made one big trade. The new cast, in order of appearance:
Dustin Hermanson, late the closer of the San Francisco Giants, was signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal, ostensibly to be the eighth-inning man. Hermanson enjoyed moderate success bouncing between the Giants’ pen and rotation for the last year and a half, posting translated ERAs much closer to his more respectable seasons in Montreal than his more recent efforts in Boston and St. Louis. While his ability to step into the rotation in case of injury is a nice bonus, that kind of versatility would have to come with some major perks to justify his contract. Plucking quality pitchers on the cheap to pitch in set-up roles is a skill not yet mastered in a lot of front offices. Considering the short length of Hermanson's contract and its relative size, signing him is not a bad move.
Oakland’s own Lemony Snicket, Jermaine Dye, was signed to a two-year, $10.15M contract to replace the departed (and not offered arbitration) Magglio Ordonez. Dye will be cheaper than Ordonez, but he won’t provide nearly the same offensive punch that Ordonez did until his lost 2004. He hasn’t approached his impressive performances of 1999-2001 since shattering his shin in the 2001 postseason, and has battled through several injuries in the years since then. If the Sox can keep him healthy, he has a chance to post respectable numbers; at an offensive position like right field, however, that would make him league-average at best.
Four days after signing Dye, the Sox shipped one of their best remaining hitters, Carlos Lee, to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and, eventually, prospect Travis Hinton. Perhaps Williams has switched allegiances from Oakland to the Brewers. After calling the White Sox’s third-leading runs scored total in 2004 "deceiving," the Sox declared themselves to be on the speed'n'defense track with this move, hoping to duplicate the success of the Rockies teams that implemented the same plan a few years ago.
There’s just one problem: unless Vizcaino is the best fielding pitcher in history, this trade only solves half that equation. Podsednik’s 2003 success at the plate was out of line with his previous performance record and he regressed badly from it in 2004. How he managed to steal 70 bases with a .313 OBP is beyond us, but that impressive total no doubt masked his below-average offense and defense. If the Sox were strapped for cash or got some decent prospects in return, moving Lee could be defensible. That’s not the case here.
After shipping Lee out of town, the Sox re-signed Juan Uribe to a three-year, $9.75MM deal, rewarding him for an impressive 2004 in which he became one of the first hitters to benefit from leaving Colorado. With the shortstop not eligible for free agency for a few more seasons, the White Sox would have been better off giving Uribe one more year to prove that 2004 wasn’t a fluke, but the faults in a deal of this size are minimal.
Having been unable to lure Randy Johnson to the South Side, just before Christmas the Sox settled for Orlando Hernandez on a two-year, $8MM contract. A suspect 35 years old, Hernandez has been effective when he's been available, and the length and cost of his contract fits in with the lower tier of starting pitchers this off-season. If El Duque can manage 150-175 innings of reasonable pitching in 2005, the deal will be a bargain. If he breaks down, the Sox haven’t lost much.
To complete the puzzle, and still seeking to emulate the Twins, the Sox picked up discarded catcher A.J. Pierzynski for one year and $2.25MM. Pierzynski struggled last year in San Francisco, both with the bat and with his teammates, but Ben Davis is not the answer at catcher for the Sox. Taking a shot on Pierzynski isn’t a bad idea, especially on a small contract like this one.
Oakland Athletics
Deal With It: The A’s did their Christmas shopping early this year, swapping out Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in a pair of mid-December trades, moves that have been analyzed more intensely than most bills in Congress. The deal that may have fallen through the cracks, coming just a day before the Hudson deal, was the swap of Justin Lehr and Nelson Cruz for Milwaukee second baseman Keith Ginter. In retrospect, the deal cleared the way for the Hudson trade that brought in Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas: Cruz neatly replaces Lehr in the pen while Thomas becomes the default option for a fourth outfielder.
The shakeup leaves as many questions as answers, the first of which is who will be playing second base when the season starts. While Mark Ellis looked to be in line for a return to the job he forfeited last year because of a bum shoulder, Ginter’s arrival signals a lack of faith on the A’s part that Ellis can perform well enough to hold down the regular job. Ellis’ 2003 was distinctly different than 2002 and previous seasons. His batting line (.248/.313/.371) regressed from his established levels from his minor-league career and rookie season, while his defense showed distinct improvement in his second year since moving over from shortstop. He looked in line for an offensive rebound in 2004, but with the year lost to injury, questions about his ability to hit are compounded by questions about health and how the injury will affect his play both in the box and on the field.
On the other hand, while Ginter has never been a superstar with the glove, totaling -13 FRAA over 2003-2004, his impressive power last year--19 home runs, .479 SLG--makes him a significant upgrade over Ellis with the bat. With extreme groundballers Mulder and Hudson now absent from the rotation, Ellis’ defense suddenly becomes less of an argument for playing him. If the A’s keep both players on the roster, they could conceivably be used in a bit of an offense/defense platoon with Ellis playing behind the more groundball-inclined pitchers (Rich Harden) while Ginter sees time when Barry Zito and other flyballers are on the mound. Realistically, the difference between the two is slight, leaving the job to go to the player who looks better in spring training.
The other big lineup question created by the trades is in the outfield. Until Thomas was acquired, the A’s appeared set with an Eric Byrnes/Mark Kotsay/Nick Swisher outfield. With Thomas aboard, rumors have begun that Byrnes--likely due a healthy raise in arbitration--is headed out of town to either Arizona or the New York Mets. Having shipped out two of their highest paid players, the A’s still have a good deal of room between their committed capital and their publicly stated payroll of $61.5MM. An extra $700,000 or so to Byrnes isn’t going to break the A’s bank and the difference between Byrnes and Thomas as an everyday player is significant.
Thomas has shown the A’s favorite skill, drawing walks, in spades in the low minors, but until he hit Double-A Greenville with Atlanta in late 2003, he had shown a complete absence of the ability to hit. Before his late season surge in 2003, Thomas had amassed a career .254 batting average in over 1000 ABs in the low minors. That’s a healthy sample size against a low quality of competition, justifying many of the concerns about a then 24-year-old in Single-A. Suddenly, however, Thomas started raking, hitting .343 in Double- and Triple-A before performing well (.288/.368/.445) in just over 200 ABs in Atlanta. With that improved BA, though, came a loss in his plate discipline; Thomas drew just 12 unintentional walks in more than 250 plate appearances with the Braves last season.
Like Thomas, Byrnes had one of his best years in 2004, hitting .283/.347/.467 in full-time action in left field. Despite his speed, his defense is still just average, but Thomas’ isn’t significantly better. With only the shell of Bobby Kielty left on the A’s outfield bench, shipping Byrnes out of town would leave the A’s significantly short-handed if injury strikes or rookie Swisher struggles. The small expense to keep Byrnes is both within the A’s budget and worth it for the risk it deters as well as the likely performance difference between Byrnes and Thomas.
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